Thursday, October 31, 2013

Morning Update for Thursday, October 31

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES





*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Between POC & value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZC (Corn), NG (Nat Gas), ZS (Soybean)  
Down: SI (Silver), NKD (Nikkei), GC (Gold), HG (Copper), 6E(Euro)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Chicago PMI: 9:45a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: It goes to show that what is important is not the news itself, but the market's reaction to the news. Despite the expected announcement that the Fed would continue it's current policy and not begin tapering until March, the markets sold off dramatically during the 2pm hour yesterday, creating a wide value area.  Therefore, the key levels to watch will be the value area high (1766.75) and value area low (1756.25). Typically, when there is a wide value area, there is a high probability for a bounce off of the levels especially if the pace of tape is slower at the market open. Anything inside value can be considered neutral price activity and should be traded accordingly.



Stock of the Day: Facebook, Inc. (FB)- Earnings after the bell last night






ES Daily Trend: Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish









Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Morning Update for Wednesday, 10/30/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES





*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SI (Silver), Nikkei (NKD), Copper (HG), Platinum (PL), Soybean Oil (ZL)
Down:Crude Oil (CL)



News for the day:

ADP Employment Report: 8:15a
Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Meeting Announcement: 2:00p


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Today's trading activity is centered on the FOMC meeting this afternoon. Typically, on Fed days, the market makers create a wide opening range and trade around the level to stabilize the market leading up to the announcement. However, there has been decent overnight activity where prices have been lifted above yesterday's range to another all-time high which is more bullish. The first 30 minutes of trading will be key to determine if prices continue it's move upward. If the ES continues to make highs when the US markets open, then the setup is for another trending day upwards. However, if bears pull prices back below 1768, then range bound activity can be expected prior to the Fed announcement at 2p.



Stock of the Day: LinkedIn (LNKD)- Reported Earnings after the bell last night








ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish









Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Morning Update for Tuesday, 10/29/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES





*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: -- 
Down:SB, 6A, SI, CL, 6B



News for the day:

Producer Price Index: 8:30a
Retail Sales: 8:30a
Case Shiller Index: 9:00a
Business Inventories: 10:00a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The trend continues to be up as the ES is knocking on the doorstep to an all-time high in the premarket. Yesterday was somewhat of an anomaly as prices made highs during the overnight session. Typically, the high (or low) of a move occurs during the US markets when there is enough volume for sustained price activity. Ever since the job report on 10/17, the structure of the profiles has been relatively orderly with normalized distributions for the most part.  The conclusion is that short-term buyers continue to support the market until further news (like the Fed announcement tomorrow) gives longer term investors the opportunity to put their capital to work.  Considering the news catalysts today and price location near the highs, the bears have their work cut out for them.



Stock of the Day: Apple, Inc. (AAPL)- Earnings after the bell last night




ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish









Monday, October 28, 2013

Morning Update for Monday, 10/28/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES





*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NKD
Down:NG, ZO



News for the day:

Industrial Production: 9:15a
Pending Home Sales: 10:00a
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a



*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The bullish momentum continued when markets resumed trading on Sunday evening as the ES made another new all-time high. When the US markets open, it will be important to watch if profit taking occurs and prices are brought back into Friday's trading range. As a result, the 1755.75 level will be significant, also because it was last week's high.  If prices spend time above the level then higher prices could be expected as traders explore new highs. Otherwise, more two sided trading should occur, especially if trading occurs inside the value area. Apple earnings also after the bell today, so stay tuned. Bulls still with the clear edge until proven otherwise.



Stock of the Day: Mercadolibre, Inc. (MELI)- Earnings after the bell





ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish




ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish









Friday, October 25, 2013

Morning Update for Friday, 10/25/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES





*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral/Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: --
Down:Silver (SI), Nikkei (NKD), Gold (GC), Palladium (PA), Platinum (PL)



News for the day:

Durable Good Orders- 8:30a
Consumer Sentiment- 9:55a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:As expected, yesterday turned out to be a balance day between Wednesday's and Thursday's trading ranges.  The distribution on the profiles have been normalized which is usually indicative of short-term traders leading the market.  Further neutral activity is likely until prices lift above 1754.75 to the topside. On the other hand, value is being built around 1738.25, so bears will have to clear  the level to generate any selling momentum.



Stock of the Day: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)- Earnings after the bell last night




ES Daily Trend: Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish









Thursday, October 24, 2013

Morning Update for Thursday, 10/24/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES





*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Nikkei (NKD), Gold (GLD)  
Down: Nat Gas (NG), Sugar (SB), Cotton (CT)



News for the day:

International Trade: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
PMI Manufacturing Index: 8:58a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The ES is poised to open higher in premarket hours.  This is both good news and bad news for the bulls today. Good because prices have lifted outside of Wednesday's range, but bad because now the market is trading right at the high volume level on 10/22 at 1748, which is usually indicative of neutral price action.  Based on the price location, prices would have to clear 1754 to the topside of sell below 1734.5 to see any real momentum. 



Stock of the Day: Ford (F)- Earnings Before the Bell










ES Daily Trend: Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish









Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Morning Update for Wednesday, 10/23/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES





*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZW, ZC, 6J
Down:NKD, CL, SI, 6A, GC, 6B, Indexes



News for the day:

Import & Export Prices: 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: After the markets made another all-time high yesterday after the jobs report release, there has been profit taking during the overnight session in offering prices below Tuesday's range.  Therefore, the previous day low of 1741.75 will be the line in the sand. If bulls can lift the ES back into yesterday's trading zone, then two-way trading can be expected as prices explore areas of value. The larger profit potential for today is to the downside as prices tend to trend better on outside days in addition to the fact that there are VPOCs to be filled from the upmove.



Stock of the Day:Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)- Earnings Before the Bell




ES Daily Trend: Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish




Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Morning Update for Tuesday, 10/22/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES





*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral/Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up --
Down:SI, NG, ZS



News for the day:

Employment Situation: 8:30a
Construction Spending: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Yesterday saw the ES make all-time highs again but the intraday momentum wasn't sustained as bears brought prices back into range. All eyes will be on the Employment report due at 8:30a in setting the tone for price activity for the day.  If the markets react positively to the news and lift the offers above yesterday's high of 1742.5 and hold there then there are clear skies ahead.  On the other hand, if  there is a selloff, then the support levels to note are the gap fill high at 1728.5 then the previous month high at 1723.75.



Stock of the Day: NFLX, Inc. (NFLX)- Earnings after the bell last night




ES Daily Trend: Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish









Monday, October 21, 2013

Morning Update for Monday, 10/21/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES



*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SI, NG, ZW
Down:CL



News for the day:

Existing Home Sales- 10:00a
Petroleum Status Report- 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: It's up, up, and away for the markets as the ES made all-time highs on Friday.  After the overnight activity, prices look to open near the POC, indicative of balance before the US markets open. As a result, if prices clear and hold above 1740.25 there will be a clear edge to the bulls due to the lack of overhead supply and the continued demand of buyers and would set up for another trend day higher.  On the flipside, if bears keep it an inside day and within the value area, then two-sided trading should be expected and profit targets/stops should be kept close.  Finally, the monthly jobs report will be released tomorrow morning, so range bound activity is more probable during afternoon trading as large investors get their positions in place for the news.



Stock of the Day: Halliburton Co. (HAL)- Earnings Before the Bell




ES Daily Trend: Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish







Sunday, October 20, 2013

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 10/20/13

Review of the week that was and preview of the week ahead as the markets made all-time highs.


Friday, October 18, 2013

Morning Update for Friday, 10/18/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES




*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SB, ZW, ZC, CL, NQ
Down: NG, CC



News for the day:

NONE

Options Expiry Friday


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Bulls are still on parade! The ES made all-time highs after what many considered a bad government deal.  Price action reigns supreme though and the bias continues to the long side until the chart shows signs of over extension.  1728.50 is the line in the sand as it is the value area high/Thursday's high&close. If buyers hold prices above the level, then clear edge to the bulls as there is no overhead supply zones due to the record highs.  If the ES pulls back into yesterday's value area, then the odds favor more range bound action, especially given the fact that today is options expiry, in which case profit targets and stops should be tightened.



Stock of the Day: Google, Inc. (GOOG)- Earnings after the bell last night






ES Daily Trend: Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish




ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish