Morning Update for Monday, March 31st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: PL (Platinum), SI (Silver), PA (Palladium), CT (Cotton)
Down:SB (Sugar), ZW (Wheat), ZO (Oats), NG (Nat Gas)



News for the day:

Chicago PMI: 9:45a
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Like bees to honey, the S&P has again gravitated to the composite high volume node between 1835-1870.  On the daily chart, the candlesticks for the past couple of weeks have displayed wide range bars in both directions with wicks, which is indicative of higher volatility in the context of range bound trading.  The higher probability is for continued price activity and smaller trade sizes should be used until the ES can clear the zone in either direction. Although the market is up during the globex session, it is trading right at the POC (point of control) from Friday. Intraday bias is a coin toss until there is a breakout of the previous day's high/low.

Stock of the Day: Apple Inc. (AAPL)- Bullish cloud break and clearance of downward trendline

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 3.30.14

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Morning Update for Friday, March 28th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: HG (Copper), NKD (Nikkei), KC (Coffee), CT (Cotton), ZO (Oats), PA (Palladium)
Down: ZW (Wheat), NG (Nat Gas), CC (Cocoa)



News for the day:

Personal Income & Outlays: 8:30a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The magnet theory of the markets continues to hold true given the wide range candles we have been seeing the past couple of weeks.  On the ES, the high volume node around 1840 had been breached yesterday and created a bearish pattern for the day. However, as soon as the sellers were building momentum, large buy orders started to appear on the time & sales and created a balance day.  Not coincidentally, Thursday's point of control (the price where the most volume had occurred) was exactly at the 1840 level.  There has been buying during the globex session, but it should be taken with a grain of salt since any trading within the 1840-1860 is likely to see more choppy action due to all the cumulated volume in the range.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day:BlackBerry (BBRY)- Up 7% in the premarket

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, March 27th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CT (Cotton), SB (Sugar), NKD (Nikkei), ZM (Soybean Meal), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), HG (Copper), ZS (Soybeans)
Down: PA (Palladium), SI (Silver), GC (Gold)



News for the day:

GDP: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Pending Home Sales Index: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The trading activity in the markets is similar to driving a car with a manual transmission.  In order for the gears to properly shift, the stick must be adjusted at just the right time and pace.  The markets had been on a bullish run in getting to gear 5 and making all-time highs dating back to 2013.  At this point in time, the bears are attempting to "downshift" the gears and reverse course on the S&P.  However, the bulls have continued to be resilient and the result has been wide range price action with the volume widespread on the profile.  The main support level on the composite profile continues to be 1840 and will be on the radar at the open as well as the VPOC at 1839.  If prices sell through the range than the intraday setup is to the short side.  Any activity within the 1840-1860 should see continued whippy price action.  Intraday edge is neutral/bearish.

Stock of the Day: Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)- Bullish breakout of range

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, March 26th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change: Bullish
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CT (Cotton), SB (Sugar), NKD (Nikkei), 6A (Aussie Dollar)
Down: KC (Coffee), HG (Copper), PA (Palladium)



News for the day:

Durable Goods Orders: 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The chart patterns found in the stock market can be likened to the runway at the airport.  At any given moment, there are cross currents of planes headed to different destinations but all initially converged at a central location.  Oftentimes, the jets have to circle the runway and wait for clearance from air traffic control before take off.  The S&P is in one of those holding patterns at the moment.  Yesterday marked the 7th day in a row where prices have consolidated in the 1840-1870 range, building a significant amount of volume in the process.  Volatility has increased as prices explored higher and lower levels, but the value area has remained steady, a sign that the large traders are keeping prices in range until there are further developments that would force the hand of the bulls or the bears.  Until there is a breakout of the zone, the day trading bias is a coin toss and the safer play is smaller profit targets and stops. 

Stock of the Day: International Business Machines Corp (IBM)- Up more than 3% yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, March 25th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: HG (Copper), NG (Nat Gas), HO (Heating Oil)
Down:PA (Palladium), OJ (Orange Juice), ZW (Wheat)



News for the day:

Case Shiller Home Index: 9:00a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a
New Home Sales: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The theme of wide range candles and high volume continued yesterday as bulls and bears are engaging in a tug-of-war near the all-time highs.  The bears have started to push on the gas pedal since last week's Fed news, but don't have much to show for it yet, resulting in higher volatility and significant volume being built in the 1840-1870 range.  Until there is a breakthrough in either direction, the higher likelihood is for two-way trading and volume spikes.  The best course of action would be to trade smaller with closer profit targets to preserve as much capital as possible.  Longterm edge is still bullish; intraday edge is a coin toss. 

Stock of the Day:Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)- Down 7% yesterday and found support in the cloud

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, March 24th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NKD (Nikkei), ZW (Wheat), ZC (Corn), ZO (Oats), PA (Palladium), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans)
Down: KC (Coffee), GC (Gold),SB (Sugar), SI (Silver)



News for the day:

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash: 9:45a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The trading activity on the S&P can be likened to the path of a cruise ship on the open water.  The captains of the ship are the large institutional banks and hedge funds who measure the scope of the macro economic climate and make their decisions about whether to continue on course of the given trend or reverse and start a counter trend shift in the markets.  We are currently in the beginning of the latter where the water is starting to get more choppy in an attempt by the bears to sell the markets, but the bulls are still holding strong and keeping the value areas on the profile near the highs.  Until there is confirmation (i.e. trendline break), it is safe to say the ship is still being steered by the bulls.  The key level to watch will be the high volume price points on the composite profile of 1875 and 1860.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)- All-time highs made Friday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 3.23.14

Morning Update for Friday, March 21st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: PA (Palladium), CT (Cotton), ZO (Oats), PL (Platinum), NKD (Nikkei), GC (Gold)
Down: ZS (Soybeans), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZM (Soybean Meal), KC (Coffee), SB (Sugar)



News for the day:

**NONE**



*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The price action of the markets can be likened to the ebb and flow of the ocean.  On all time frames from the 1 minute to the monthly chart, there is a constant rotation of buying and selling as the bulls and bears look to ride the wave of their intended trade.  Dating back to 2013, the buyers had lifted the offers and bought on any dips as they saw value in the ES contracts after prices sold off.  We are currently in a higher volatility market as there have been wide range candles in both directions for the past 3 days. Prices have risen above the zone during the globex session, making the breakout level of 1867 the key area to watch for today.  Intraday edge is bullish.

Stock of the Day: Nike, Inc. (NKE)- Earnings reported before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, March 20th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZM (Soybean Meal)
Down:SI (Silver), NG (Nat Gas), NKD (Nikkei), HG (Copper), KC (Coffee), CC (Cocoa), PA (Palladium), GC (Gold), ZW (Wheat), ZC (Corn), PL (Platinum), CT (Cotton)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Philadelphia Fed Survey: 10:00a
Existing Home Sales: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:Trading on the S&P futures can be likened to a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.  Each side tries to wrestle the price action in a back and forth seesaw battle to drive prices in the intended direction of their trades.  At any given time, either side could find themselves on the short end of the stick.   After yesterday's FOMC news that saw the Fed reduce bond purchasing by $10 billion the markets sold off and created a wide range red candlestick. Volatility has increased recently as the bears are attempting to build momentum in pulling prices from the all-time highs.  Typically when there is a trend reversal, the price activity is whippy and volume is spread out on the profile.  The key level to watch today will be Wednesday's low of 1842.  If there is a liquidation break at the open, then the higher probability is for a trending day lower.  Intraday edge is bearish.

Stock of the Day: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)- Up 20% yesterday with a bullish cloud break

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, March 19th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZS (Soybeans), ZM (Soybean Meal), KC (Coffee), ZL (Soybean Oil), NKD (Nikkei)
Down: ZO (Oats), GC (Gold), HG (Copper)



News for the day:

Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Minutes: 2:00p


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The way prices flow on the S&P can be likened to magnets.  They are attracted to high volume levels and filling gaps. High volume levels are significant because this is where large traders had done business in the past and there is a high probability that buyers and sellers will protect the level with large size.  The ES is once again trading in the high volume range from 1865-1880 after breaking through the downward channel on the hourly chart yesterday.  Any price action in the zone is likely to bring in more two-sided trade as both bulls and bears have been active at these levels. With prices near the all-time highs, intraday edge is neutral/bullish. 

Stock of the Day: Microsoft, Inc. (MSFT)- Made 52 week highs yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, March 18th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZM (Soybean Meal), CT (Cotton), ZS (Soybeans), ZC (Corn)
Down:NKD (Nikkei), SI (Silver), PA (Palladium), PL (Platinum), GC (Gold), NG (Nat Gas)



News for the day:

Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Housing Starts: 8:30a
Treasury International Capital: 9:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:On St. Patrick's Day, the markets were all green, up more than 1% for the day.  The S&P is in a longterm uptrend, but in a downward channel on the 1 hour chart dating back to the beginning of March.  When prices are trending in mixed directions on smaller and larger timeframes, it is usually indicative of two-sided price action.  There has been buying during the globex session and the bulls will look to continue the upward momentum when the markets open for business. The key levels of reference will be the value area high/previous day high to the topside and value area low/previous day low if there is a liquidation break.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)- Bullish cloud break

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish