Morning Update for Friday, May 30th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZO (Oats), CC (Cocoa), CT (Cotton)
Down: KC (Coffee), ZL (Soybean Oil), SB (Sugar)


News for the day:

Personal Income & Outlays: 8:30a
Chicago PMI: 9:45a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P continued its journey to record levels as another all-time high was made yesterday.  It marked the seventh consecutive day where the value area has risen, a sign that large investors are confirming the up move since both time and volume are making higher highs.  The Dow and Nasdaq are near all-time highs as well and, if record levels are made in these markets, it should provide further fuel to the bullish nature of the indexes.  Trading has been neutral during the premarket, but long term since remains bullish.


Stock of the Day: Splunk (SPLK)- Up 2% yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, May 28th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: PA (Palladium), ZS (Soybeans), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZL (Soybean Oil), CT (Cotton)
Down:KC (Coffee), ZW (Wheat), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), ZC (Corn)


News for the day:

**NONE**

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The theme of the markets continued upwards as a fresh all-time high was made yesterday in the S&P, marking the sixth consecutive day of increasing value areas on the profile.  When this pattern develops on the charts, it is indicative that large traders and institutions are seeing additional value at higher prices and are lifting the offers of the contracts.The bullish activity has been confirmed by the fact that the market has seen both time and volume near the highs.  Additionally, a new high has been made during the globex session as international traders were buying the markets and the bias continues to be to the topside until proven otherwise.

Stock of the Day: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)- Down 2% yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, May 27th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CC (Cocoa), Stock Indexes
Down:KC (Coffee), ZO (Oats), ZW (Wheat), ZC (Corn), ZS (Soybeans), SI (Silver), ZM (Soybean Meal), CT (Cotton), SB (Sugar), GC (Cold)


News for the day:

Durable Goods Orders: 8:30a
Case Shiller Index: 9:00a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The bulls are on parade once again.  All-time highs were made in the S&P futures market on Friday as well as during the shortened holiday session yesterday.  There are mixed volume confirmation signals, however, as prices are reaching the record levels.  The profile is displaying progressively higher value areas for 5 consecutive days with the closing price near the point of control (POC) for each day.   At the same time, the daily volume has been below the 50 day averages during the breakout, likely due to the holiday weekend.  The bias is clearly with the buyers but volume will be in focus this week to confirm the move higher. 

Stock of the Day:Michael Kors Holdings (KORS)- Up 3% on Friday

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Weekend Update 5.25.14

Morning Update for Wednesday, May 21st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Inside value area near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CL (Crude Oil), ZM (Soybean Meal), PL (Platinum), ZO (Oats)
Down:HG (Copper), NG (Nat Gas)


News for the day:

Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Minutes: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P continued its ride within the high volume composite profile. Yesterday's profile showed a wide range double distribution, a sign that time and volume was spent in multiple zones as the markets search for the next directional move.  Consequently, a large value area was built and prices have been trading near the POC (point of control) during the premarket session.  When this type of pattern sets up, a high probability trade is shorting the value area high and/or buying the value area low.  FOMC minutes are set to be announced this afternoon and should provide added volatility to the markets, especially if there is new information for the markets to process.  Intraday edge is neutral.

Stock of the Day: Salesforce, Inc. (CRM)- Earnings reported yesterday after the close

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, May 20th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:
Overnight Inventory Change:
Inside Day/Outside Day:
Location of price relative to market profile:
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:
Down:


News for the day:

**NONE**

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P continued it's journey within the high volume composite range as the bears initially sold the markets only for the bulls to buy the dip and close prices near the highs of the day.  The market profile developed a "P" shaped formation, meaning that prices opened near the lows, were bought up to higher levels quickly before spending both time and volume at higher levels and, at the same time, increasing the value area.  The globex session has been neutral and trading inside of value, making the value area high and low (1882.75 & 1876.25, respectively) the key levels to watch for today. Intraday edge is neutral until there is a breakout of the zone and longterm edge is neutral to bullish. 

Stock of the Day:Google, Inc. (GOOGL)- Up 2% yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, May 19th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SI (Silver), NG (Nat Gas), PA (Palladium), PL (Platinum), GC (Gold), CL (Crude Oil)
Down:ZO (Oats), ZC (Corn), ZW (Wheat), CC (Cocoa)


News for the day:

**NONE**

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:  Just when the bulls made a run at continued new all-time highs, the bears sold the markets back into the high volume composite node.  As reviewed in the weekly video, the all-time highs were made on low volume, a sign that the market makers bought up the markets on a head fake, only to sell the contracts back into the zone.  Any activity inside of the 1840-1880 range has a higher probability of two-way trading and should be traded more cautiously until a breakout of the range. The profile has displayed parallel value areas on Thursday and Friday which means that the S&P had found a level of support after the gap down from Thursday. Intraday edge is neutral/bearish.

Stock of the Day: DirecTV (DTV)- Announcement of AT&T purchasing company

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, May 13th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:SB (Sugar), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), CL (Crude Oil), NKD (Nikkei), ZC (Corn), HO (Heating Oil), KC (Coffee)
Down:ZO (Oats), CT (Cotton)


News for the day:

Retail Sales: 8:30a
Import & Export Prices: 8:30a
Business Inventories: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: It's up up and away once again as the S&P made all-time highs yesterday.  After a month of consolidation above the cloud, the markets finally built enough momentum to set a new record and rise through the high volume composite node.   Clearly, bear traders set their stop orders above the previous all-time high with the expectation for a bounce which triggered additional buying intraday yesterday as they were forced to cover their positions.  One point of note is the relationship between the closing price and the point of control (POC) for the day.  Prices closed right at the highs while the POC remained below at 1888, potentially creating a situation where traders could be long in the hole as prices migrate back to the POC. There has been some mild buying during the globex session to another high, making the open significant to watch if for some kind of liquidation. Longterm bias remains bullish.

Stock of the Day: Rackspace Hosting Inc. (RAX)- Earnings reported after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, May 12th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:HG (Copper), SI (Silver), ZL (Soybean Oil), PA (Palladium), HO (Heating Oil), PL (Platinum), TF (Russell), GC (Gold), CL (Crude Oil)
Down:ZW (Wheat), NG (Nat Gas), ZC (Corn), OJ (Orange Juice)


News for the day:

Treasury Budget: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P continues to trade in a holding pattern within the context of the long term ascending trend channel.  There have been both bottoming tail and topping tail hammer candlesticks on the daily chart from last week with trading activity being conducted between the 1860-1880. Until there is clearance of the range, the higher probability is for more two way trading as both the bulls and bears look to build momentum for the next directional move.  The market has been trading to the buy side during the globex session.  The open will be key to see if the action continues above Friday's high of 1875, which is the level to watch for today.  Intraday bias is neutral until further notice.

Stock of the Day: Kandi Technologies (KNDI)- At 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, May 8th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:PA (Palladium), ZL (Soybean Oil), 6A (Aussie Dollar)
Down:KC (Coffee), CC (Cocoa)


News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P's are currently trading in a "rubber band" style as prices have fluctuated within a well-defined trading range dating back to mid-April.  Each time the bears have attempted to sell the market and drive prices lower, the bulls step in, buy the dips, and lift the offers back into the 1860-1880 high volume zone.  Another signal of the horizontal price activity is the divergence of the major indexes.  Typically, the indexes trade in tandem as the market reacts to news and developments throughout the day.  However, the S&P and Dow were well in the green yesterday while the Nasdaq and Russell had sold off with the Russell selling below trendline support.  The ES has been neutral during the globex session and, until prices breakthrough the zone, the higher probability is for more two-sided trading and choppy price action. Intraday edge is neutral. 

Stock of the Day: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)- Earnings reported after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, May 7th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CL (Crude Oil), KC (Coffee)
Down:NKD (Nikkei), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), ZO (Oats)


News for the day:

Productivity & Costs- 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report- 10:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: There is a tug of war currently taking place on the S&P with back and forth trading activity occurring with overlapping value areas dating back to the beginning of May.  As part of market profile theory, an emphasis is placed on where prices closed relative to the point of control (POC), the price where the most amount of volume had traded at from the previous day.  The market open will be key. Given yesterday's close near the lows and neutral overnight activity, the higher probability is for a migration higher to the POC as traders who were short in the hole would cover their positions.  However, if there is a liquidation break, any selling below Monday's low of 1860.5 would trigger additional bearish algorithmic trading programs to enter the market and setup for a trending day lower. 

Stock of the Day: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)- Earnings reported yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish