Morning Update for Friday, February 28th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZO (Oats), ZW (Wheat), ZL (Soybean Oil), 6E (Euro)
Down: SB (Sugar), CT (Cotton), NG (Nat Gas), ZM (Soybean Meal)



News for the day:

GDP: 8:30a
Chicago PMI: 9:45a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a
Pending Home Sales Index: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Oftentimes when something is too good to be true, it probably is.  However, there are sometimes when the market provides lucrative opportunities for long periods of time and the bulls get euphoric.  The Internet bubble of the 90s was one situation.  The current market conditions are another as the Fed backing of the stock market has raised prices near all-time highs once again. After the S&P formed a basing pattern for much of the week, the higher probability is for continued upside momentum as buyers were active for much of the day yesterday and closed prices near the highs of 1855.75, which is the major level to watch for the day.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR)- Down 9% yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, February 27th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral/Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CT (Cotton), SI (Silver), ZM (Soybean Meal), SB (Sugar), KC (Coffee), ZS (Soybeans), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), SB (Sugar), 6J (Yen)
Down: ZO (Oats), NKD (Nikkei), NG (Nat Gas), ZL (Soybean Oil)



News for the day:

Durable Goods Orders: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The price action of the stock market can be compared to airplane flight patterns.  When a plane is ready for takeoff, typically it circles the runway until air traffic control clears the congestion and gives the signal for advancing.  When a plane is preparing to land, it often engages in a holding pattern before beginning its descent.  Similarly, the S&P has started to form a basing pattern near the highs as buyers are supporting the markets and bears are keeping it small until selling momentum resumes.  There tends to be lower daily volume and slower pace of the tape during this type of activity, especially when prices are trading inside the value area.  Traders have sold the market during the globex session to the low of this week's range at 1837, making it the level to watch for the day. Intraday edge is neutral/bearish.

Stock of the Day: JC Penney (JCP)- Earnings reported after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, February 26th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZO (Oats), ZL (Soybean Oil), NKD (Nikkei)
Down:NG (Nat Gas), SB (Sugar), ZM (Soybean Meal), CC (Cocoa)



News for the day:

New Home Sales: 10:00a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: As the old saying goes, "the trend is your friend until the end when it bends." The S&P is setting up to continue its topside momentum after a balancing day yesterday.  Price location is key in determining potential future price action.  Since the balance occurred near the all-time highs it is a sign that value is being built near the area and that buyers are supporting the level.  The bullish activity was confirmed as international traders have been buying during the globex session.  The natural levels to watch are the new all-time high set at 1856.75 and the previous high of 1846.50. Intraday and long term edge to the bulls.

Stock of the Day: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)- All-time highs made yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, February 25th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral/short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZO (Oats)
Down:NG (Nat Gas), SI (Silver), CL (Crude Oil), PA (Palladium), CC (Cocoa), HG (Copper), PL (Platinum), ZL (Soybean Oil), KC (Coffee)



News for the day:

S&P Case Shiller Index: 9:00a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: As the saying goes, "a rising tide lifts all ships."  Yesterday it seemed like every stock on the heat map was in the green with the S&P making all-time highs during the intraday session. When prices clear a significant level, either a high or low, there is typically a flush of buyers/sellers due to the large quantity of limit orders placed around the level.  The S&P explored new highs and reached 1856.75 before pulling back to two points below the previous all-time high. Coincident? Likely not.  Confirmation of the range breakout can only be confirmed when prices close above 1846.50 which is the key level once again for today's trading.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Home Depot, Inc. (HD)- Earnings reported this morning

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, February 24th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG (Nat Gas), KC (Coffee), SB (Sugar), SI (Silver), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZO (Oats), ZS (Soybeans), GC (Gold)
Down: HG (Copper), ZC (Corn), RB (RBOB Gasoline)



News for the day:

Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The markets are like the Olympics in certain respects.  At any given moment from the opening whistle, various forces are driving athletes to attain the goal of scoring more goals or crossing the line the fastest. Similarly, from the opening bell, different conditions entice traders to make certain decisions all with the same goal- greater profits.  For much of 2013 and now in 2014, the bears have drawn the short straw with hopes of the markets regressing to the mean. The bullish activity has continued during the globex session as international investors have primarily been buying prior to the beginning of the RTH session.  From a technical perspective, the S&P is in a high & tight holding pattern near the all-time highs. It is a bullish setup as it shows that the bulls are supporting prices and buying the dips with the intention that a new high will be made this week.  The key level to watch is the high of 1846.5 and intraday bias is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)- Bullish cloud break last week

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 2/23/14

Morning Update for Friday, February 21st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG (Nat Gas), KC (Coffee), NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), CT (Cotton), PL (Platinum)
Down:ZO (Oats), 6C (Canadian Dollar)



News for the day:

Existing Home Sales: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: When considering how markets operate during the course of time given the current Olympic events, it more closely mirrors cross country skiing than speed skating.  Statistical evidence exists that displays how markets appreciate over time during a slow, steady climb.  The S&P also sells off faster than it goes up because emotions are stronger to preserve as much as capital as possible.  The ES has seen a gradual rise for the past month after January's selloff and once again are approaching the all-time highs. Traders have bought up the index futures during the overnight session, making 1846.5 the level to attract a significant amount of price action. Today is options expiry where the price action is typically more range bound and increases the probability of bounces at the value area high/low.  The intraday edge is neutral/bullish and the longterm bias is still bullish.

Stock of the Day: Priceline, Inc. (PCLN)- Earnings reported last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, February 20th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZO (Oats), ZL (Soybean Oil)
Down:KC (Coffee), NG (Nat Gas), NKD (Nikkei), SI (Silver), ZM (Soybean Meal), PL (Platinum), SB (Sugar), GC (Gold)



News for the day:

Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
PMI Manufacturing Index:  8:58a
Philly Fed Survey: 10:00a
Petroleum Status Report: 11:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: It is important to think of price ranges as different levels of a building.  When prices penetrate one ceiling (resistance), it then becomes a floor (support).  This phenomenon occurred yesterday as the S&P came within two points of the all-time highs prior to selling off after the Fed minutes annoucement, creating a wide range candle on the daily chart. The selling has continued during the globex session with the first target is the 50 day moving average at 1809.  If there is buying at the open, profits should be taken at the value area low of 1831.25. Intraday edge to the bears.

Stock of the Day: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)- Earnings reported after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, February 19th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG (Nat Gas), ZO (Oats), SB (Sugar)
Down:CC (Cocoa), NKD (Nikkei), SI (Silver), ZL (Soybean Oil)



News for the day:

Housing Starts: 8:30a
PPI-FD: 8:30a
FOMC Minutes: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Like Kevin Durant of the NBA's Oklahoma City Thunder, the market is on a hot streak.  Yesterday marked the 11th consecutive up day for the ES after January's selloff and today marks an important news day for the markets. FOMC Minutes are set to be announced at 2:00p and generally serves as a catalyst for increased volatility, especially for fundamental investors who base their decisions on macro news events. As anticipated, the markets bounced off of the high volume node from 1838-1840 and continues to be the main reference point for today's trading.  The S&P has sold off during the globex session, making the open price action important to determine the activity of the bears. Typically on Fed days, the market trades in a range prior to the announcement so watch for a defined trading zone during the morning session as investors position themselves for the afternoon news.  Intraday edge is neutral/bearish.

Stock of the Day: SolarCity (SCTY)- Made 52 week highs yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, February 18th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: KC (Coffee), NG (Nat Gas), NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), CL (Crude Oil)
Down:PA (Palladium), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), 6J (Yen), ZO (Oats)



News for the day:
Empire State Mfg Survey: 8:30a
Treasury International Capital: 9:00a
Housing Market Index: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The bulls had its win streak continue on Friday for the tenth straight day as it once again approaches the all-time level of 1846.5.  Looking at the composite volume profile for the past 52 weeks, a significant amount of volume has accumulated at 1838-1840, where the large institutions had taken profits.  When this type of price/volume action occurs, a slew of buyers is necessary to propel prices through the level.  The ES has tested the 1840 level during the globex session and will be the level to watch for the day. The open will be especially noteworthy due to the buildup of inventory from the long holiday weekend.  Prices are trading inside of value exactly at Friday's POC, making the intraday bias a coin toss. Longterm edge is still up.

Stock of the Day: Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN)- Made all-time highs on Friday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, February 17th

**STOCK MARKET CLOSED DUE TO PRESIDENT'S DAY HOLIDAY**

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 2/16/14

Morning Update for Friday, February 14th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: at POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Si (Silver), ZO (Oats), NG (Nat Gas), GC (Gold), ZW (Wheat), ZM (Soybean Meal), PL (Platinum), ZS (Soybean)
Down: NKD (Nikkei), KC (Coffee), SB (Sugar), CL (Crude Oil)



News for the day:

Import & Export Prices: 8:30a
Industrial Production: 9:15a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:Yesterday's price action was a tale of two halves. The S&P had sold off half a percent during the globex session after weaker than expected retail sales news only to bounce back in a big way after the opening of the US markets. It is bullish when prices go up after economic news misses the forecast since the buyers are swooping up the contracts on the dip due to perceived greater value in the future.  Additionally, the daily candlestick pattern created a bottoming tail hammer after the bounce off of the 50-day moving average, which also is bullish.  The overnight activity has been neutral with prices right near the POC and setting up for trading inside the value area when the market opens.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF)- Earnings reported last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish