Notable Companies Reporting Earnings 7/30/13

Morning Update (7/29/13)

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted region(s) denote strong area(s) of support/resistance

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral/Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Between value area high & POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:SI, GC, 6J
Down:NG, NKD, ZS


News for the day:


Pending Home Sales: 10a
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The ES is set to open within Friday's range after prices explored both higher and lower levels before closing near the highs.  The 1670 area continues to be a main area of support and where a large amount of volume has been traded at the past week.  If the bears can push prices through and it spends time there, then the bears will have it for the day.  Otherwise, we should continue to see sideways to up action with a test of Friday's high (1689) until new, longer term buyers reenter the market.

 Stock of the Day:Herbalife, Inc. (HLF)

Earnings after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Weekend Update 7/27/13 (Video)

Weekly Cloud Analysis of the week that was in the markets and predictions for the week ahead!

Notable Companies Reporting Earnings 7/29/13

Morning Update (7/26/13)

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted region(s) denote strong area(s) of support/resistance

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Neutral/Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZW, 6J 
Down:NKD, CL, SI, NG


News for the day:

Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a



*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Yesterday, the ES built value right at the confluence zone of 1684 which will be a key reference area today.  If prices rise above then the bulls will be lifting the offer and prices should test yesterday's high.  If there is liquidation through the 1674.75 level with momentum then the higher probability is for further selling to continue with the next major level of support at 1666.5.

 Stock of the Day:Amazon, Inc. (AMZN)

*See blog post for details

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Amazon Earnings Review and Projected Price Action

Actual:-$.02 EPS

Estimated: $.06 EPS

Amazon posted a surprising loss during the most recent quarter which raises questions about the profitability of the company.  That being said, the company's operating margin remained at 1% for the quarter, a figure consistent with the previous 12 months.  Additionally, Amazon has developed a track record of razor thin profit margins together with a high P/E, but remains a tech darling on the street.  It has done a solid job in creating new and innovative products while expanding into new markets and, with Bezos still at the helm, the long-term prospects still seem bright. 

From an Ichimoku technical perspective, the setup is still very bullish with all indicators above the cloud together with a bullish kumo future.  The main levels to watch will be the tenkan sen (303.25) and kijun sen (287.2) together with the psychologically important 300 level.

Morning Update (7/25/13)

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted region(s) denote strong area(s) of support/resistance


Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:SB
Down:NKD, ZS, HO, HG, CL, SI, ZO, GC, TF, YM, NQ, ES


News for the day:

Durable Goods: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a



*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Prices are set to open below the value area and the previous day's low. It will be important to see if the bulls step in and continue to prop up prices.  Yesterday was the first time in a while where there was some semblance of a selloff and the bears will look to gain steam as prices pull back from the all-time highs.  As a result, the previous day's low (1677.25) will be the key level. If prices are accepted above, then the bulls will be lifting the offer and build value in yesterday's range.  However, if prices can clear last week's low & monthly pivot at 1666.5 then the bears will have it for the day.

 Stock of the Day:Facebook, Inc. (FB)

*See blog post for full details.

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Facebook Earnings Analysis and Projected Price Action

Actual: $.19 EPS & $1.8 Bil Rev

Estimated: $.14 EPS & $1.62 Bil Rev

Facebook announced earnings after the bell tonight and the street was highly impressed with shares jumping as much as 20% in extended hours trading.  The company's revenue popped a stellar 53% in the second quarter on strong advertising growth.  Mobile ad revenue had been a focal point leading into the quarter and with 41% growth in the space, there is reason for optimism.  According to Zuckerberg, "The work we've done to make mobile the best Facebook experience is showing good results and provides us with a solid foundation for the future." Facebook also has new products in the works that could serve as a catalyst for future growth including video for Instagram, Verified Pages, hashtags, and embedded posts.  As a result, signs are pointing upwards on the social network giant.

Now, how to trade it when the market opens tomorrow?  Shares will open significantly higher at the open, so taking a long position at that point will be a high risk trade. If you're a day trader, a good rule of thumb is to wait at least 5 minutes after the bell rings and the market makers clear their inventory before taking a position above the 5 minute bar high when going long or below the 5 minute bar low when going short. For long swing traders, watch prices in the morning. If prices sell off, a solid entry point would be the swing high at 29.  For short swing traders, a test of 32.50 could provide strong resistance and a quality entry for a pullback in prices.  See below for ichimoku cloud levels:

Swing high 2: 32.50

Swing high 1: 29

Cloud high:25.88

Cloud low: 24.40

Morning Update (7/24/13)

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted region(s) denote strong area(s) of support/resistance

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NQ, ZC, GC
Down:NG, 6J


News for the day:


PMI Manufacuring Index: 8:58a
New Home Sales: 10:00a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:  1690.5 continues to be the key level to watch the past few days as prices continue to spend the most time and volume in the area.  Anytime prices rose above it, the bears stepped in and drove prices back into the daily range, allowing for more balanced days this week so far.  This price action is saying that the bulls are continuing to prop prices higher but there is less momentum due to the below average daily volume.  As a result, the ES could breakthrough it's previous day high of 1694 and explore higher levels in which case watching volume coming in to the markets will be key.  Otherwise, if the markets sell off at the open like yesterday, then look for a test of the value area levels.  AAPL earnings last night should be a catalyst in the markets, especially on the Nasdaq, in addition to the new home sales report coming out at 10a.

 Stock of the Day:Apple, Inc. (AAPL)

*See previous blog post for full earnings analysis

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

AAPL Q3 Earnings Analysis & Projected Price Action

Actual: $7.47 EPS & $35.3 Bil Rev

Estimated: $7.32 EPS & $35 Bil Rev

Apple announced earnings for the June quarter (Apple's fiscal Q3) of US$6.9 billion on revenue of $35.3 billion. Apple's earnings per share (EPS) of $7.47 beat consensus estimates of $7.32 per share, while revenue beat estimates of $35 billion.  Both beats are solid and come at the high end of Apple's guidance.

Impressive, right? At first glance, there's reason for the bulls to cheer, but dig a little deeper and the picture may not be as rosy.  While Apple beat on both the top and the bottom line, the year over year revenue essentially was flat and the earnings were significantly lower than last year.  Apple reported earnings of $8.8 billion in Q3 2012 (EPS of $9.32) on revenue of $35 billion.  Long term value investors will be swayed by this data as earnings growth is the key driver to nearly any successful fundamental strategy.  The difference is that analysts had already lowered their estimates during the course of the previous year. As a result, the main question for future projections is whether Apple will grow faster (or less slowly) than they have in recent quarters, especially given the more competitive technology space. If the answer is yes and Apple continues to innovate with new products, which is something the company has failed to do under the guidance of Tim Cook, then higher share prices will be sure to follow.  Otherwise, stagnant earnings growth and flat to lower stock prices could become the norm.  This is still Apple, but the company has it's work cut out for itself.

From an Ichimoku cloud technical perspective, here are the levels of support and resistance that will be in play when the market reopens for business tomorrow. Despite having a bearish setup with price, tenkan, kijun, and chikou below the cloud as well a bearish kumo future, the positive earnings news should push prices near the cloud high.  Based on post market activity this evening, look for a test of the cloud high at 439.5. If buyers step in the next level of resistance is the swing high at 457. Otherwise, the higher probability is for prices to fluctuate in the middle of the cloud.

Swing high 2: 466

Swing high 1: 457.75

Cloud high: 439.5

Cloud low: 425.25