Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Cognizant Technologies Solutions Corp (CTSH) Cloud Analysis Before Earnings on Tuesday, August 6th

According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 14 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.97.

Ichimoku Cloud Trend Score: 6/10
 
 
Daily Chart:
Above the cloud (bullish): price, tenkan (blue line), kijun sen (light purple line), chikou (red line)
Bullish kumo future

Swing level resistance levels: $75, $81.08, $83.48


 Weekly Chart:

Bullish signs: Price above cloud
Neutral signs: tenkan sen, kijun sen in the cloud with horizontal lines
Bearish signs: chikou below prices, tenkan sen < kijun, bearish kumo future






Monday, August 5, 2013

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (KORS) Earnings Preview before the bell on Tuesday, August 6th


Michael Kors is set to release earnings before the bell on Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters foresee earnings rising 44% to 49 cents a share with sales climbing 37.5% to $570.52 million. Both figures would be the slowest pace for both sales and profits the company has seen since its December 2011 IPO.

Looking at the KORS daily chart, the cloud structure signals are positive before earnings:

Above the cloud (bullish): price, tenkan sen (blue line), kijun (light purple line), chikou (red line)
+ Bullish kumo future

Key swing pivot support levels @ $66.25 & $65




Notable Companies Reporting Earnings (8/6/13)


Cloud Trader Morning Update (8/5/13)

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES



*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CC, KC
Down:SI, ZC, NG, CL, ZW


News for the day:


ISM Non-Mfg Index: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The ES is set to open within Friday's range near the value area high.  Given the price location, the test to the topside will be the previous day's high of 1705 and to the downside the previous day low of 1695.75.  If prices clear the high from Friday, then edge to the bulls. There is a confluence of support levels in the 1695-1697 area so if the bears can push through and hold below, then lower prices should continue.  Otherwise, if price stay in the range, then a balancing day would be likely.









 Stock of the Day:Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)

Earnings before the bell. 









ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish




ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish





ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish




Sunday, August 4, 2013

Cloud Trader Weekend Update (8/4/13)

Review of last week's activity and trading ideas for the week ahead as the ES made all-time highs!

Ideas for Struggling Traders

We all know what it's like to see drawdowns to the account.  There are so many mixed feelings of anger, frustration, and doubt while in search of a consistently profitable strategy.  As a result, here are some ideas to consider as you seek to grow as a trader and find your place in the market:

1. Keep it simple- If you have handfuls of indicators on your charts and can barely see the price action then your trading strategy is likely too complex.  Always remember that the market is nothing more than a place where buyers and sellers meet to do business.  Look for the imbalance between buyers and sellers as seen on the price charts and on the time & sales and capitalize on the opportunities.  Remember, trading is simple, but not easy.

2. Look in the mirror- Consider how you are feeling before each trading day.  The trades you take and decisions you make are a reflection of your personality and the trading results mirror your P/L for the day.  If your heart is beating and there is uncertainty before placing a trade, then it would be wise to skip it, even if it is a setup in your trading plan. Unless you use 100% automated strategy, your psychology outweighs a trading setup.

3.  Don't strategy hop-If you are a new trader and find that you are jumping from strategy to strategy in search of the "holy grail" then you should not be trading a live account.  There is not a trader on earth with a 100% win rate.  The key is to find a strategy that is consistently profitable which has at least a 2:1 risk/reward ratio.

4. Practice on a demo account- Any strategy should be tested on a demo/simulator for at least a month, if not longer, before trading live.  It is essential to prove to yourself that you are comfortable with the strategy (especially after getting stopped out) and have confidence that it will work in various market conditions.

5.  Find a strategy that fits your personality- There are a million different ways to be profitable in the marketplace.  You need to find one that matches who you are.  If you don't like to stare at a screen for hours at a time then day trading might not be for you. If you are comfortable letting a trade run and taking bigger risks, then swing trading could be a match.  If you enjoy math and complex probabilities, then give options trading a try.

 We've all been there before when trading doesn't go our way.  Have the discipline, patience, and persistence to find a tested strategy that fits your personality and you can be a successful trader too.




Friday, August 2, 2013

Morning Update (8/2/13)

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES




*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NKD, ZS, ZW
Down: SI, GC


News for the day:


Employment Situation: 8:30a
Personal Income & Outlays: 8:30a
Factory Orders: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The all-important jobs report will set the tone for the price volatility in the markets today.  If the numbers are positive and new buyers enter the market, then a key area will be the 1703-1705 level. If prices spend time above the area  then look for a test of the R2 pivot at 1709.25.  Otherwise, if traders sell the jobs news then a key support level is in the 1690-1692 range and where floor traders will be searching for buying opportunities.






 Stock of the Day:Chevron Corp. (CVX)

Earnings before the bell. See blog post for earnings analysis.










ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish




ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish



Thursday, August 1, 2013

Chevron Corp. (CVX) Earnings Preview for Friday, 8/2

Estimated EPS: $2.97/share
Estimated revenues: $56.01 billion

Chevron is set to report earnings before the bell on Friday and most analysts are expecting lower 2nd quarter profits due to thinner refining margins and greater challenges in maintaining production levels. The company earned $3.66/share and $60.61 billion in the first quarter.  With Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell reporting declining profits earlier this week, investors will be sure to compare Chevron's results for future signs of growth in the industry.  As the second largest oil company in the world behind Exxon and one of the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Index, the earnings will have an impact on the oil and gas space for the foreseeable future. 

Despite the projected slowdown in profits, the stock has been performing well for the year, up 16%. From an ichimoku cloud point of view, the stock still has a bullish setup:

Above the cloud: price, tenkan, kijun, chikou
Bullish kumo future

Key Price levels:
Swing high: 127.84
Tenkan: 126.5
Kijun: 122.42
Cloud high: 121.75


Notable Companies Reporting Earnings on Friday, 8/2/13


Morning Update (8/1/13)

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES




*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NKD, CL, GC, DX, ES, TF, YM, NQ, SI
Down:6J, ZC, 6E


News for the day:


Jobless Claims: 8:30a
PMI Manufacturing Index: 8:58a
ISM Manufacturing Index: 10:00a
Construction Spending: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Markets are set to open significantly higher after yesterday's FOMC meeting where interest rates were left unchanged but resulted in a lower 10-year treasury rate.  Despite the large up move during the overnight session, prices are still within yesterday's range at the time of this writing.  As a result, a key area will be 1694-1696. If prices trade above and are accepted higher than the bulls will be propping up the markets and the higher probability is for prices to move higher. Otherwise, if the ES returns into yesterday's range then prices should test the value area levels (1690.75 & 1683.75). 








 Stock of the Day:Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM)

*Earnings after the bell last night. See blog for more details.










ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish



ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish




ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish