Morning Update for Friday, 10/11/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:  Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG 
Down:VX, SI, GC, ZC, CL



News for the day:

PPI: 8:30a
Retail Sales: 8:30a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a
Business Inventories: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:Sentiment continues to be bullish after the news of a potential resolution in Congress. The key level of resistance will be 1692.25, the previous day high. Watch for the bulls to protect the previous day high of 1687.75.

Stock of the Day: Solar City (SCTY)

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, 10/10/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG, NKD, ZS, ZC, ZW, Indexes
Down: ZB



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Import & Export Prices: 8:30a
Treasury Budget: 2:00p


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: And the roller coaster continues.  After the big selloff on Tuesday, the bulls are rallying back with news that Congress may have come to a resolution.  When there is a big gap up, there is typically a brief selloff at the open as the overnight trader take profits. It will be important to see how aggressive the bulls are given the news catalyst, so any pullbacks should be considered buying opportunities if the government announcement is positive.

Stock of the Day: Questcor, Inc. (QCOR)- Increase in quarterly dividend

ES Daily Trend:Neutral

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, 10/9/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NKD
Down:SI, GC, 6B



News for the day:

Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Minutes: 2:00p


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Prices FINALLY cleared the 1670 level and did so in a big way. Given the large value area and wide trading area, the higher probability is for trading around the value area high and low.  With that said, there is FOMC minutes that will be released at 2pm which could provide the catalyst to drive prices through yesterday's levels.

Stock of the Day: Alcoa- Earnings reported last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral

ES Weekly Trend: Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, 10/8

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG, NKD, ZW
Down:VX, SI, GC



News for the day:

International Trade: 8:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: As the government shutdown continues, the ES still is holding the range between 1670-1700. I will be watching for a test of value area low (1672) and previous day low (1667) at the open.  If prices are accepted into value then the likelihood is for choppy action in the value area. Otherwise, if the bears can sell below yesterday's range, then it could be off to the races.

Stock of the Day: Yum Brands, Inc. (YUM)

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, October 7

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CC, NG, 6J, ZW
Down:NKD, CT, CL, Indexes



News for the day:

NONE


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The indexes gapped down in a major way when trading opened for the London session, falling more than 1% in the premarket.  The 1670 level once again will be key as the "line in the sand" for the bulls to support.  The momentum is clearly to the bears, so I will be watching for either continued selling at the open or for bulls to hold the level and lift the offers.  Keep in mind that when there is a big gap up/down in overnight trading, prices typically trade more horizontally during the US session as most of the action had already occurred before the stock market opened.

Stock of the Day: Google, Inc. (GOOG)- at channel & cloud support

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Cloud Trader Weekend Update for 10/6/13

Morning Update for Friday, 10/4/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:
Inside Day/Outside Day: Net long
Location of price relative to market profile:Between value area high/POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZW, ZC
Down: SI, 6B



News for the day:

NONE
(Monthly Employment report cancelled due to government shutdown)


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The ES is set to open inside the wide value area created after the significant volatility on Thursday.  Typically, the larger the value area, the more likely prices are to bounce off of value area high and low.  As a result, 1677 and 1668.75 will be the key levels to watch for an edge to the bulls or the bears. 

Stock of the Day: GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)- Down 1.5% in the premarket

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, 10/3/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZS, ZW
Down:SI, GC, PL, PA



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Factory Orders: 10:00a
ISM Non-Mfg Index: 10:00a




*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The ES continues to chop around in the 1670-1700 range.  Specifically, the range to watch is between 1687-1680. Any prices in the middle should be traded cautiously and with tight stops. Look for a test of the value area high/low to see if the bulls or the bears can gain any traction. 

Stock of the Day:Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ)- Sold two utility plants and at 52 week highs

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, 10/2/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: VX, ZS, GC, SI
Down:NKD, Indexes



News for the day:

ADP Employment Report: 8:15a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The markets shrugged off the government shutdown news as prices propelled higher.  That being said, prices are back into the high volume area between 1670-1700. There has been some overnight selling with the ES down more than 11 handles in the premarket. The key area to watch will be the previous day low at 1675.25 which also corresponds with the POC from Monday.

Stock of the Day: Tesla (TSLA)- Premarket gap down

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, 10/1/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: 6A, 6J, Indexes
Down:ZM, NKD, ZS



News for the day:

PMI Manufacturing Index: 8:58a
ISM Manufacturing Index: 10:00a
Construction Spending: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Despite the government shutdown news, prices rallied in the overnight session and are primed to open above Monday's range. If buyers continue to step in at the open, the high probability is a touch of the VPOC at 1684.5 and then choppy price action above. If prices sell off, then potential buying opportunities are present at the value area high & POC.

Stock of the Day:ExOne (XONE)- large selling in the 3D space

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish