Morning Update for Thursday, 10/24/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Nikkei (NKD), Gold (GLD)  
Down: Nat Gas (NG), Sugar (SB), Cotton (CT)



News for the day:

International Trade: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
PMI Manufacturing Index: 8:58a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The ES is poised to open higher in premarket hours.  This is both good news and bad news for the bulls today. Good because prices have lifted outside of Wednesday's range, but bad because now the market is trading right at the high volume level on 10/22 at 1748, which is usually indicative of neutral price action.  Based on the price location, prices would have to clear 1754 to the topside of sell below 1734.5 to see any real momentum. 

Stock of the Day: Ford (F)- Earnings Before the Bell

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, 10/23/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZW, ZC, 6J
Down:NKD, CL, SI, 6A, GC, 6B, Indexes



News for the day:

Import & Export Prices: 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: After the markets made another all-time high yesterday after the jobs report release, there has been profit taking during the overnight session in offering prices below Tuesday's range.  Therefore, the previous day low of 1741.75 will be the line in the sand. If bulls can lift the ES back into yesterday's trading zone, then two-way trading can be expected as prices explore areas of value. The larger profit potential for today is to the downside as prices tend to trend better on outside days in addition to the fact that there are VPOCs to be filled from the upmove.

Stock of the Day:Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)- Earnings Before the Bell

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, 10/22/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral/Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up --
Down:SI, NG, ZS



News for the day:

Employment Situation: 8:30a
Construction Spending: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Yesterday saw the ES make all-time highs again but the intraday momentum wasn't sustained as bears brought prices back into range. All eyes will be on the Employment report due at 8:30a in setting the tone for price activity for the day.  If the markets react positively to the news and lift the offers above yesterday's high of 1742.5 and hold there then there are clear skies ahead.  On the other hand, if  there is a selloff, then the support levels to note are the gap fill high at 1728.5 then the previous month high at 1723.75.

Stock of the Day: NFLX, Inc. (NFLX)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, 10/21/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SI, NG, ZW
Down:CL



News for the day:

Existing Home Sales- 10:00a
Petroleum Status Report- 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: It's up, up, and away for the markets as the ES made all-time highs on Friday.  After the overnight activity, prices look to open near the POC, indicative of balance before the US markets open. As a result, if prices clear and hold above 1740.25 there will be a clear edge to the bulls due to the lack of overhead supply and the continued demand of buyers and would set up for another trend day higher.  On the flipside, if bears keep it an inside day and within the value area, then two-sided trading should be expected and profit targets/stops should be kept close.  Finally, the monthly jobs report will be released tomorrow morning, so range bound activity is more probable during afternoon trading as large investors get their positions in place for the news.

Stock of the Day: Halliburton Co. (HAL)- Earnings Before the Bell

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 10/20/13

Review of the week that was and preview of the week ahead as the markets made all-time highs.

Morning Update for Friday, 10/18/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SB, ZW, ZC, CL, NQ
Down: NG, CC



News for the day:

NONE

Options Expiry Friday


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Bulls are still on parade! The ES made all-time highs after what many considered a bad government deal.  Price action reigns supreme though and the bias continues to the long side until the chart shows signs of over extension.  1728.50 is the line in the sand as it is the value area high/Thursday's high&close. If buyers hold prices above the level, then clear edge to the bulls as there is no overhead supply zones due to the record highs.  If the ES pulls back into yesterday's value area, then the odds favor more range bound action, especially given the fact that today is options expiry, in which case profit targets and stops should be tightened.

Stock of the Day: Google, Inc. (GOOG)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, 10/17/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: GC, SI, 6J, 6B, 6E, 6A, ZC
Down:NKD, DX, CL



News for the day:

Housing Starts: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Industrial Production: 9:15a
Philly Fed Survey: 10:00a
Petroleum Status Report: 11:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: As talked about yesterday, if the bulls got prices above 1706, we would be setting up for a trending day, and what a trending day it was as the ES was up as much as 16 handles after the government resolution news. With that much energy expended yesterday, there is typically a balancing day before continuing any directional moves.  Prices should open near yesterday's POC, so the value area high/low (1715.5/1710) will be significant to determine if the bulls or bears have the edge. Anything inside of value should be considered range bound activity.

Stock of the Day: Ebay, Inc. (EBAY)- Earnings last night

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, 10/16/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG, NKD, GC
Down:--



News for the day:

Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Treasury International Capital: 9:00a
Housing Market Index: 10:00a
Beige Book: 2:00p



*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The ES is poised to open inside value, near the POC and close to the all-important 1700 level.  When prices are within the value area, the likelihood is for choppy price action. If bulls lift the offer outside of value and above Tuesday's high of 1706.5, then the setup is for a trending day up. Otherwise, the higher probability is for two-sided trading below 1700.

Stock of the Day: Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)- Earnings reported last night

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, 10/15/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral/long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area/near previous day high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG, DX
Down: SI, GC, CL, 6E



News for the day:

Empire State Mfg Survey: 8:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The buyers continue to have the momentum with news that Congress is nearing a deal. Prices on Monday closed near highs and the premarket activity is currently near the highs, which are both bullish signs. Additionally, the ES cleared the 1670-1700 range on the daily chart. Therefore, 1700 will be the line in the sand for the bulls to protect. If prices continue upward at the open, the next level of resistance is the pivot cluster near 1712. If prices sell off below 1700, then more two-sided trading should be expected, especially in the value area.

Stock of the Day: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)- Bearish cloud break. Gold futures down in the premarket.

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, 10/14/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG, SI, GC
Down:NKD, CL, ZW, Indexes



News for the day:

NONE
(Columbus Day)


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Given that today is Columbus Day, the stock market is open, but the bond market is closed. Usually the situation results in choppy price action in a narrow range, but the pending government situation could provide the catalyst for more volatility. As of this writing, prices are below the value area and a test of value area low (1689.75) or previous day low (1682.5) seem likely. If prices return back into value, then two-way trading should result, but if the ES sells below 1682.5, then a clear edge to the bears.

Stock of the Day: Stratasys (SSYS)- Down 3% premarket

ES Daily Trend:Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish