Morning Update for Monday, January 13th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net Short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), ZW (Wheat), 6A (Australian Dollar), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), 6J (Yen)
Down: Nikkei (NKD), PA (Palladium), CL (Crude Oil), ZM (Soybean Meal), SI (Silver), HG (Copper)



News for the day:

Treasury Budget: 2:00p


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The theme for the S&P recently has been balance and we have seen more of the same to open the new trading week.  In the long term, this is more of a bullish pattern as buyers continue to prop up the prices near the all-time highs while the bears cannot gain any sell side momentum. Looking at Friday's profile, prices closed near the highs while value remained lower, resulting in a corrective selloff back into range during the Euro session. A significant amount of time and volume has been spent between 1825-1838 which has displayed two-sided trading.  Additional time spent in the zone should be traded with closer profit targets and stop loss points as traders have been fading both sides.  Until prices breakout of the area, more of the same should be expected. Intraday bias is neutral/bearish.

Stock of the Day: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)- Earnings reported before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 1/12/14

Morning Update for Friday, January 10th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CL (Crude Oil), CT (Cotton), CC (Cocoa), ZM (Soybean Meal), Indexes
Down: ZO (Oats), ZC (Corn)



News for the day:

Employment Situation: 8:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P has been primarily in balance mode for the past week as the larger timeframe traders have been on the sidelines in preparation for the all-important jobs report this morning.  There should be significant volatility in providing traders with the opportunity to capitalize on the numbers based on the news.  Of course, price action trumps the actual results of the report. If traders like what they hear and lift the offers, then the higher probability is for a test of the all-time high of 1846.5.  If there is a selloff after the number, the key reference point will be the low of the previous 3-day range (1824.5).  Based on the overnight trading activity, there is an expectation for positive news, but that could change at the drop of a hat when the news comes out at 8:30a.  At this point, edge to the bulls.

Stock of the Day: Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD)- Selling off after earnings report

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, January 9th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), Indexes
Down:NG (Nat Gas), HG (Copper), ZO (Oats)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Yesterday's price activity can be summed up as a whole lot of nothing.  Despite the fact that both the high and the low from Tuesday had been tested, the market closed within a couple of handles of Tuesday's close with a neutral tape for most of the day.  The overnight session, however, has seen significant buy side activity and prices have been lifted above the high volume cluster from 1825-1835.  Since resistance becomes support, 1835 will be the level to watch if there is any profit taking once the market opens. To the topside, 1840 would be the first profit target for longs as that is a VPOC to be filled from 12/31.  From there, the next target would be the all-time high of 1846.5. Edge to the bulls.

Stock of the Day: JC Penney (JCP)- Bearish cloud break after gap down yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, January 8th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZO (Oats), NG (Nat Gas), KC (Coffee), ZW (Wheat), CC (Cocoa)
Down: SI (Silver), ZL (Soybean Oil), PA (Palladium), SB (Sugar), CT (Cotton)



News for the day:

ADP Employment Report: 8:15a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Minutes: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: FOMC minutes are upon us once again.  These macro economic news events provide the volatility in the markets and create the profitable trading opportunities for both short and long-term traders.  Typically on Fed days, the market makers set a wide opening range and trade within the area until the news is released.  At this point, there has been a minor selloff during the overnight session, sending prices below the value area low but still above Tuesday's low print.  Naturally, these will be the points of reference for trade when the market opens.  Longterm bias is still up; intraday bias is neutral/bearish. Of course, all bets are off once the minutes are released. Tread carefully.

Stock of the Day: Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)- Made new all-time highs yesterday during intraday trading

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, January 7th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CT (Cotton), CC (Cocoa), HO (Heating Oil), NG (Nat Gas), CL (Crude Oil)
Down: ZL (Soybean Oil), ZS (Soybeans)



News for the day:

International Trade: 8:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Yesterday's profile showed an excess high together with a breakout lower of the value area, both bearish signs.  The excess high indicates that long intraday traders were stuck in their positions when attempting to lift the offers above Friday's range and were forced to cover as prices sold off. We are seeing a bounce, however, during the Euro session as the bulls look to buy on the dips.  The key level to watch today is 1817.75 which is both yesterday's low as well as the high from 12/20 when the last Fed minutes were announced. Trading between 1827 & 1832 should see more two-way trading as the range has been a location of significant trade activity the past few days.  At this point, the edge is to the bulls, but if there is selling back through the 1818 level, then expect the pace of tape to pick up and larger sizes to be printed.

Stock of the Day: First Solar Inc. (FSLR)- Bearish cloud break after 10% selloff

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, January 6th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), HO (Heating Oil), ZO (Oats), CT (Cotton), CL (Crude Oil)
Down: SI (Silver), PL (Platinum), NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), ZL (Soybean Oil), HG (Copper)



News for the day:

Factory Orders: 10:00a
ISM Non-Mfg Index: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Bearish traders who believe in a regression to the mean strategy continue to search for areas to short this market, be it with macro news or technical levels. While 2013 was a calendar year for the bulls, a pullback of some degree is likely.  This week provides news catalysts that should drive the markets with the Fed minutes on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Friday.  Despite the selloff on Thursday, the value areas from Thursday/Friday were parallel, which is a bullish sign that buyers were supporting the level.  As a result, the natural level to watch on the tape if there is any selling is Friday's low of 1823 to determine if the large traders are propping the market.  The ES is set to open inside value area which typically shows more two way trading.  However, given the buying that had occurred during the Euro session, the trend continues to be up until proven otherwise.  Intraday bias is neutral/up.

Stock of the Day: JP Morgan Chase (JPM)- Made 52 week highs on Friday

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 1/5/14

A review of the week that was and a preview for the week ahead.

Morning Update for Friday, January 3rd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral/Bullish
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:6N (New Zealand Dollar), CC (Cocoa), 6A (Australian Dollar)
Down: NG (Nat Gas), HG (Copper)



News for the day:

Petroleum Status Report: 11:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P started the year by selling off significantly and clearing 3 VPOCs from the board. If this was profit taking from 2013 or an harbinger of things to come is yet to be determined.  The overnight session has been mostly balanced trading, resulting in value area high/low being the key levels to watch for today.  Long term the trend is still up, but yesterday could give the bears some traction if the selling continues and the short term bulls are forced to cover their positions.  Intraday bias is neutral.

Stock of the Day: Linked In (LNKD)- 5% selloff yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, January 2nd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SI (Silver), GC (Gold), NG (Nat Gas), PL (Platinum), DX (Dollar), KC (Coffee)
Down: HO (Heating Oil), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), 6E (Euro), 6A (Australian Dollar), CL (Crude Oil), NKD (Nikkei), 6B (British Pound)



News for the day:

Jobless claims: 8:30a
PMI Manufacturing Index: 8:58a
ISM Mfg Index: 10:00a
Construction Spending: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: What a 2013 it was as the S&P was up close to 30% for the year.  The first day of trading in the New Year has seen some profit taking as the ES has sold off in the premarket outside of Tuesday's range.   Anytime there is selling outside of the previous day's trading area, the key level to watch is first the previous day low of 1836.75 and then the value area of low 1838.75.  If selling continues at the open, a strong support zone is at 1833.5, so two scenarios are likely. Either the pace of sell orders slows on the tape and buyers step in to lift the offers or the pace of selling accelerates as prices burst through the zone.  The difference is subtle but can be seen on the time & sales.  On an intraday basis, the bias is to the short side at this point.

Stock of the Day: Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)- Range breakout

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish