Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), KC (Coffee), ZO (Oats)
Down: 6A (Aussie Dollar), NKD (Nikkei), SI (Silver)
News for the day:
Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Treasury International Capital: 9:00a
Philly Fed Survey: 10:00a
Housing Market Index: 10:00a
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: The buyers continue to be alive and well given the current market conditions. Yesterday's trading activity was an upwards follow up to the bounce back day from Tuesday, providing confirmation that the bulls are exceeding expectations. There was a test of the all-time high of 1846.5, but prices bounced from the level and traded in balance for the duration of the day. That high would be the natural level to watch when the market opens. There has been some minor selling in the premarket right to the top of the high volume node from 1838-1825. If prices retrace back into the area then the higher probability is for more two-way trading. Long term bias is bullish; intraday bias is neutral.
Stock of the Day: Bank of America Corp (BAC)- Earnings reported yesterday
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), CC (Cocoa), CT (Cotton), CL (Crude Oil)
Down: SB (Sugar), PL (Palladium), SI (Silver), GC (Gold)
News for the day:
Producer Price Index: 8:30a
Empire State Mfg Survey: 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
Beige Book: 2:00p
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: The bulls are persistent. Yesterday saw one of the biggest bounce back days in years after a broad market selloff on Monday. Not only did the buyers manage to lift the offers back into the weekly high volume range of 1825-1838, they also brought the POC together with it. While it is fairly common to see spinning top patterns on a chart (where the candlesticks have approximately the same high/low/close on consecutive days), what is striking about the price action the past two days is the width of the bars and the distance that price had traveled only to return to the balancing area. The buying continued during the overnight session as prices have risen above yesterday's range. 1838 is the first inflection point to watch to the topside followed by the all-time high of 1846.5. Any trading within the high volume area should continue to see two-sided trading, but expect a flush of buyers to push prices through the 1838 target if it gets to that point. Intraday edge back to the bulls.
Stock of the Day: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)- Up 15% during yesterday's trading session
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral/Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), ZM (Soybean Meal)
Down: VX (VIX), PL (Platinum), 6A (Aussie Dollar), 6J (Yen), SI (Silver), KC (Coffee)
News for the day:
Retail Sales: 8:30a
Import & Export Prices: 8:30a
Business Inventories: 10:00a
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: The S&P saw it's first major intraday selloff in what seemed like ages. Prices had been primarily range bound during the morning session, but the afternoon session was all for the bears. The trading area of balance had been between 1825-1838 and a momentum of sellers was needed to push prices through the zone combined with the longs who had to cover their positions. As a result, the next target to the short side is the VPOC at 1801.5 and the whole number of 1800. There has been some profit taking during the overnight session as prices have been lifted inside of yesterday's range. At this point, the bulls will look to get prices back inside the value area and retest the 1825 level. On an intraday basis, the bias is neutral/bearish.
Stock of the Day: Sodastream (SODA)- Down 25% after missing earnings
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net Short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), ZW (Wheat), 6A (Australian Dollar), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), 6J (Yen)
Down: Nikkei (NKD), PA (Palladium), CL (Crude Oil), ZM (Soybean Meal), SI (Silver), HG (Copper)
News for the day:
Treasury Budget:
2:00p
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: The theme for the S&P recently has been balance and we have seen more of the same to open the new trading week. In the long term, this is more of a bullish pattern as buyers continue to prop up the prices near the all-time highs while the bears cannot gain any sell side momentum. Looking at Friday's profile, prices closed near the highs while value remained lower, resulting in a corrective selloff back into range during the Euro session. A significant amount of time and volume has been spent between 1825-1838 which has displayed two-sided trading. Additional time spent in the zone should be traded with closer profit targets and stop loss points as traders have been fading both sides. Until prices breakout of the area, more of the same should be expected. Intraday bias is neutral/bearish.
Stock of the Day: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)- Earnings reported before the bell
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CL (Crude Oil), CT (Cotton), CC (Cocoa), ZM (Soybean Meal), Indexes
Down: ZO (Oats), ZC (Corn)
News for the day:
Employment Situation: 8:30a
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: The S&P has been primarily in balance mode for the past week as the larger timeframe traders have been on the sidelines in preparation for the all-important jobs report this morning. There should be significant volatility in providing traders with the opportunity to capitalize on the numbers based on the news. Of course, price action trumps the actual results of the report. If traders like what they hear and lift the offers, then the higher probability is for a test of the all-time high of 1846.5. If there is a selloff after the number, the key reference point will be the low of the previous 3-day range (1824.5). Based on the overnight trading activity, there is an expectation for positive news, but that could change at the drop of a hat when the news comes out at 8:30a. At this point, edge to the bulls.
Stock of the Day: Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD)- Selling off after earnings report
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), Indexes
Down:NG (Nat Gas), HG (Copper), ZO (Oats)
News for the day:
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: Yesterday's price activity can be summed up as a whole lot of nothing. Despite the fact that both the high and the low from Tuesday had been tested, the market closed within a couple of handles of Tuesday's close with a neutral tape for most of the day. The overnight session, however, has seen significant buy side activity and prices have been lifted above the high volume cluster from 1825-1835. Since resistance becomes support, 1835 will be the level to watch if there is any profit taking once the market opens. To the topside, 1840 would be the first profit target for longs as that is a VPOC to be filled from 12/31. From there, the next target would be the all-time high of 1846.5. Edge to the bulls.
Stock of the Day: JC Penney (JCP)- Bearish cloud break after gap down yesterday
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZO (Oats), NG (Nat Gas), KC (Coffee), ZW (Wheat), CC (Cocoa)
Down: SI (Silver), ZL (Soybean Oil), PA (Palladium), SB (Sugar), CT (Cotton)
News for the day:
ADP Employment Report:
8:15a
Petroleum Status Report:
10:30a
FOMC Minutes:
2:00p
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: FOMC minutes are upon us once again. These macro economic news events provide the volatility in the markets and create the profitable trading opportunities for both short and long-term traders. Typically on Fed days, the market makers set a wide opening range and trade within the area until the news is released. At this point, there has been a minor selloff during the overnight session, sending prices below the value area low but still above Tuesday's low print. Naturally, these will be the points of reference for trade when the market opens. Longterm bias is still up; intraday bias is neutral/bearish. Of course, all bets are off once the minutes are released. Tread carefully.
Stock of the Day: Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)- Made new all-time highs yesterday during intraday trading
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CT (Cotton), CC (Cocoa), HO (Heating Oil), NG (Nat Gas), CL (Crude Oil)
Down: ZL (Soybean Oil), ZS (Soybeans)
News for the day:
International Trade: 8:30a
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: Yesterday's profile showed an excess high together with a breakout lower of the value area, both bearish signs. The excess high indicates that long intraday traders were stuck in their positions when attempting to lift the offers above Friday's range and were forced to cover as prices sold off. We are seeing a bounce, however, during the Euro session as the bulls look to buy on the dips. The key level to watch today is 1817.75 which is both yesterday's low as well as the high from 12/20 when the last Fed minutes were announced. Trading between 1827 & 1832 should see more two-way trading as the range has been a location of significant trade activity the past few days. At this point, the edge is to the bulls, but if there is selling back through the 1818 level, then expect the pace of tape to pick up and larger sizes to be printed.
Stock of the Day: First Solar Inc. (FSLR)- Bearish cloud break after 10% selloff
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES
*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)
Daily Outlook
Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), HO (Heating Oil), ZO (Oats), CT (Cotton), CL (Crude Oil)
Down: SI (Silver), PL (Platinum), NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), ZL (Soybean Oil), HG (Copper)
News for the day:
Factory Orders: 10:00a
ISM Non-Mfg Index: 10:00a
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention
Projected ES price
action for the day: Bearish traders who believe in a regression to the mean strategy continue to search for areas to short this market, be it with macro news or technical levels. While 2013 was a calendar year for the bulls, a pullback of some degree is likely. This week provides news catalysts that should drive the markets with the Fed minutes on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Friday. Despite the selloff on Thursday, the value areas from Thursday/Friday were parallel, which is a bullish sign that buyers were supporting the level. As a result, the natural level to watch on the tape if there is any selling is Friday's low of 1823 to determine if the large traders are propping the market. The ES is set to open inside value area which typically shows more two way trading. However, given the buying that had occurred during the Euro session, the trend continues to be up until proven otherwise. Intraday bias is neutral/up.
Stock of the Day: JP Morgan Chase (JPM)- Made 52 week highs on Friday
ES Daily Trend: Bullish
ES Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish
ES Monthly Trend: Strongly Bullish
