Morning Update for Thursday, November 14th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NKD (Nikkei), PL (Palatium), SI (Silver), GC (Gold), OJ (Orange Juice), ZW (Wheat)
Down:NG (Nat Gas), CL (Oil), 6J (Yen)



News for the day:

International Trade: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Productivity & Costs: 8:30a
Petroleum Status Reports: 11:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:
The trend continues to remain bullish as the S&P made all-time highs yesterday after a late afternoon buying spree.  There are two noticeable points to analyze: 1) The majority of the buying occurred in the afternoon. Typically, the most momentum is generated during the AM session as that is when the majority of institutional investors place their trades. 2) A new all-time high was made during the overnight session. Usually, a new high is made during Regular Trading Hours so at this point, the signs are pointing for at least a test of the overnight high.  If bears can get prices back inside yesterday's range then there could be some choppy action, but higher probability is for further buying when the market opens.

Stock of the Day: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, November 13th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Between POC & value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: HO (Heating Oil), CT (Cotton), NG (Nat Gas), ZL (Soybean Oil)  
Down: HG (Copper), OJ (Orange Juice)



News for the day:

Treasury Budget: 2:00p


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P has been in a basing pattern for the past two weeks on relatively lower volume, even after the monthly jobs report. There have been mostly small size bodied candles with wicks, which is indicative of two-sided trading. While the momentum has slowed, the price action is still bullish since any horizontal trading is a sign that buyers are supporting the market until proven otherwise. The market looks to open inside of the value area so value area high (1766.5) and value area low (1761.5) will be the key levels to watch for any directional trades.

Stock of the Day:Sina Corp. (SINA)- Earnings last night

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, November 12th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NKD (Nikkei), ZL (Soybean Oil), NG (Nat Gas), ZC (Corn), CT (Cotton), CC (Cocoa), KC (Coffee), ZW (Wheat) 
Down:SI (Silver), 6B (Pound), HG (Copper)



News for the day:

NONE


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Yesterday's profile showed an extremely normalized distribution with prices trading in a narrow range due to the holiday. As a result, the previous day's high (1770.25) & low (1764) serve as strong reference points for today's trading. Anything above 1770.25 and edge to the bulls as the market once again approaches all-time highs.  Anything below 1764 and the bears will look to push prices lower to the VPOC at 1760.75. There is no major news announcements, so if there is any directional movement, it likely will be done by short-term traders.

Stock of the Day: NQ Mobile- Large volume in the stock

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, November 11th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZC (Corn), CT (Cotton), ZW (Wheat)  
Down: PA (Palladium), PL (Platinum)



News for the day:

Veteran's Day: Stock market open; bond market closed


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: With today being Veteran's Day and the bond market closed, the higher probability is for more range bound price activity. The S&P and bond futures are levered together and when one of the markets is closed, it is more difficult to sustain intraday momentum.  Given the large value area on Friday after the jobs report, the likelihood is for prices to trade within the zone. Typically, on holidays when the markets are still open, there is significantly less volume and market makers establish a wide 5 minute opening range and trade within it for most of the day. The better play for today is to fade support/resistance levels, especially when the pace of the tape slows.

Stock of the Day: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)- Bearish cloud break

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 11/10/13

A review of the week that was and a preview of the week ahead.

Morning Update for Friday, November 8th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Bearish
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area



News for the day:

Employment Situation: 8:30a
Personal Income & Outlays: 8:30a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention

Projected ES price action for the day: Despite the fluctuation in prices after the jobs report, prices have pulled back inside the value, near the POC.  This is indicative of two-sided action and clearance of value area high would be edge to the bulls or value area low would be edge to the bears.

Stock of the Day:Groupon (GRPN)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, November 7th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG (Nat Gas), ZM (Soybean Meal)
Down:NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), HO (Heating Oil), ZO (Oats)



News for the day:

GDP: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The ES tested the all-time highs yesterday in the first hour of trading before pulling back and trading horizontally most of the afternoon, creating a very even distribution on the profile. At this point, prices are set to open inside the lower half of the value area and we could see some strong price movement in the premarket with Weekly Jobs & GDP report coming out at 8:30a.  1750-1760 continues to be a high volume zone and any trading in the range would be considered neutral price action. If prices clear value area high at 1766.75 then edge to the bulls. The afternoon trading should be light with the impending monthly jobs report tomorrow morning.

Stock of the Day:  Solar City, Inc. (SCTY)- Secondary offering

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, November 6th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CT (Cotton), Silver (SI), NKD (Nikkei), CL (Crude Oil), Gold (GC), Nat Gas (NG), Indexes
Down:



News for the day:

Petroleum Report: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The market is poised to open higher and above the high volume area that has accumulated the past few days, a very bullish sign. At this point, the higher probability is a test of the all-time highs of 1770.50 as current prices are within 5 handles of the level.  If there is profit taking at the open, watch for a test of the previous day high/value area high at 1762.  Any bounce can be considered bullish as buyers would be supporting the level. If bears can manage to get prices back into the value area then that would be an accomplishment at this point given that it is a light news day. As of now, clear edge to the bulls.

Stock of the Day: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, November 5th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CC (Cocoa), ZO (Oats), OJ (Orange Juice) 
Down:NG (Nat Gas), NKD (Nikkei), 6M (Mexican Peso)



News for the day:

ISM Non-Mfg Index: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The ES has been selling off in the premarket and are within the high volume range of 1750-1760.  If the bearish momentum continues when the US markets open for trading, resulting in a liquidation break, then the first reference point will be the previous day low of 1756.  If prices clear and hold then clear edge to the bears. On the other hand, if the buyers support the level and keep prices within Monday's range, then two-sided trading should be expected.

Stock of the Day: AOL Inc. (AOL)- Earnings before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, November 4th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: 6N (New Zealand Dollar), 6A (Aussie Dollar) 
Down:NG (Nat Gas), HG (Copper)



News for the day:

Factory Orders: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Prices have been moving higher in the premarket and are currently in a zone of overlapping value areas between 1750-1760 which is indicative of neutral activity. For buyers to gain traction today, the offers will have to be lifted above Friday's high at 1761.25. It is a relatively light news day, so trades within the value area should have smaller profit targets/stops.

Stock of the Day:Dry Ships Incorporated (DRYS)- Earnings today

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish