Thursday, April 17, 2014

Morning Update for Thursday, April 17th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZO (Oats), KC (Coffee), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), ZW (Wheat)
Down:SB (Sugar), PA (Palladium)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Philadelphia Fed Survey: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Earnings season is in full swing with a significant number of Dow companies and momentum names reporting after the bell last night and premarket this morning including Google, IBM, American Express, Pepsi, Morgan Stanley, Dupont, Honeywell, Goldman Sachs, & GE among others. Earnings reports often brings in added volatility to the markets with traders looking to capitalize on projected growth rates of the respective companies.  Given the context of the long term uptrend, the path of least resistance is still higher until proven otherwise.  During the premarket, there has been some selling back into Wednesday's value area.  If the location of trade remains the same when the market opens for business, the higher probability is for two-way trading until prices can clear the intraday high (1857)/low (1840.75), which are the key levels to watch for today.  Intraday edge is neutral.



Stock of the Day:Google, Inc. (GOOGL)- Earnings reported after the bell last night










ES Daily Trend: Neutral






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 



























Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 16th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES




Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish 
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Indexes, NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), ZS (Soybeans), ZM (Soymeal), CL (Crude Oil), CT (Cotton), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZO (Oats), SI (Silver)
Down:6N (New Zealand Dollar)



News for the day:

Housing Starts: 8:30a
Industrial Production: 9:15a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
Beige Book: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: When it comes to the markets, expect the unexpected.  Just as the bears were starting to build some velocity and all of the CNBC pundits were warning of a major correction, traders have been buying the market this week. The importance of technical analysis cannot be understated.  Despite the selloff last week, the market is still above the long term ascending trendline and making higher highs.  Until the trendline or 200 daily MA is broken, the path of least resistance continues to be up as bulls are buying the dips.  Premarket action has seen added buying ahead of the Janet Yellen speech this afternoon. The 20 day MA at 1853 is the key level to watch for today and should attract added trading.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.



Stock of the Day: Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)- Earnings reported last night






ES Daily Trend: Neutral






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 























Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Morning Update for Tuesday, April 15th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZM (Soybean Meal), SB (Sugar), CT (Cotton)
Down: PA (Palladium), GC (Gold), PL (Platinum), SI (Silver), CL (Crude Oil), ZC (Corn)



News for the day:

Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Empire State Mfg Survey: 8:30a
Treasury International Capital: 9:00a
Housing Market Index: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: For the millions of Americans each year who report their taxes, there are some who receive a reward from Uncle Sam while others who have to pay a penalty.  Similarly, the markets rewards those traders who are prudent with their decisions while stopping out those traders who have not done their research.  The S&P is currently at a crossroads with a potential change in market sentiment as the bears are starting to pick up momentum within the context of a long term uptrend.  Yesterday saw significant volatility as Friday's high of 1828 was tested only for prices to trade within the daily range.  The offers have lifted above it during premarket trading with the key area being 1830-1835 which had previously been support and now is a resistance level and could be a potential point where the bears would look for shorting opportunities.  Intraday edge is neutral.



Stock of the Day: Coca-Cola (KO)- Earnings reported before the bell










ES Daily Trend: Neutral






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 



























Monday, April 14, 2014

Morning Update for Monday, April 14th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES




Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZW (Wheat), NKD (Nikkei), CT (Cotton), ZC (Corn), SB (Sugar), PA (Palladium), TF (Russell 2000 Index)
Down:KC (Coffee), NG (Nat Gas), SI (Silver), CC (Cocoa)



News for the day:

Retail Sales: 8:30a
Business Inventories: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The markets are at a crossroads after the selloff last week.  The bears are starting to build a case for lower prices as velocity is starting to pick up to the downside, but it is important to keep in mind that the S&P is still in an uptrend and the higher high is still intact on the daily chart.  Until the trendline is taken out, the longerterm edge is still with the bulls.  The premarket trading has been bullish after Citigroup's positive earnings as buyers have lifted the offers back to Friday's point of control (point of control).  The natural inflection points for today when the market opens for business are the value area high (1824) and value area low (1812.5).  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.



Stock of the Day:Citigroup Inc. (C)- Earnings before the bell 











ES Daily Trend: Neutral






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 























Friday, April 11, 2014

Morning Update for Friday, April 11th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: OJ (Orange Juice)
Down:ZO (Oats), NKD (Nikkei), ZL (Soybean Oil), SB (Sugar), ZS (Soybeans), NQ (Nasdaq)



News for the day:

PPI-FD: 8:30a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The bears are starting to come out of hibernation on all of the indexes, especially the Nasdaq.  The market makers lured in buyers after Wednesday's Fed news in lifting the offers and making the market appear to be strong, only to dump the contracts/shares in a big way yesterday.  Not only did the ES trade below the high volume node of 1830, it also closed below the 50 day MA for the first time in two months.  It is necessary to keep the location of prices in mind and the overall context in which the market is trading.  We are still in a long term uptrend but velocity is beginning to pick up to the downside.  The 50 DMA @ 1838 and the pivot levels will be significant to watch for today as intraday traders will be looking to buy/short at these points.  Intraday edge is bearish.



Stock of the Day: Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)- Index down 3%+ yesterday











ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 



























Thursday, April 10, 2014

Morning Update for Thursday, April 10th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SI (Silver), KC (Coffee), PL (Platinum), GC (Gold), PA (Palladium), ZO (Oats), SB (Sugar)
Down:NKD (Nikkei), CC (Cocoa), ZL (Soybean Oil), NG (Nat Gas)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Import and Export Prices: 8:30a
Treasury Budget: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: When it comes to the markets, the phrase that comes to mind is "expect the unexpected." Just as the bears started to gain some momentum for the past week in selling contracts through the high volume node on the composite profile, the bulls swooped in and bought the dip after the positive Fed news yesterday of near 0 interest rates for the foreseeable future.  The importance of key swing levels on the charts cannot be understated in identifying locations on the chart for potential inflection points. The 1832 price level had been an area of support which saw three tests of the range and each time the bulls lifted the offers. It held once again and the S&P is trading in the middle of the high volume node from 1830-1880. The higher probability is for continued two-way trading and the most advisable strategy would be smaller profit targets and the use of stop loss orders to limit risk.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.



Stock of the Day: Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)- Earnings reported after the bell last night










ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 



























Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 9th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZS (Soybeans), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZW (Wheat), NG (Nat Gas), ZM (Soybean Meal)
Down:KC (Coffee), SI (Silver), ZO (Oats), HG (Copper)



News for the day:

Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Minutes: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The two strongest emotions that an investor feels is fear and greed.  For the majority of 2013 and 2014, the large institutions and hedge funds have been absorbing the low interest rates set by the Fed and have driven the S&P to all-time highs.  At the same time, when the selloff does occur, the higher probability is for the market to give back the profits quicker on the way down than on the way up as they look to preserve as much capital as possible.  Given the wide range red candles the past couple of days and above average volume the velocity for the bearish case is starting to accelerate.  FOMC minutes are set to be announced at 2pm today and it is setting up to be a pivotal event. If the news is less than what the street is expecting than the liquidation could continue as the sellers look to build momentum.  The key level remains the high volume node from 1830-1835.  The ES is currently trading above it in the premarket and the level should be on alert when the market opens for business.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.



Stock of the Day: Alcoa, Inc. (AA)- Earnings reported after the bell last night








ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish