Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 23rd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES




Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:KC (Coffee), SI (Silver), NG (Nat Gas)
Down: 6A (Aussie Dollar), CT (Cotton)



News for the day:

PMI Manufacturing Index: 9:45a
New Home Sales: 10:00a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P has continued it's march higher with yesterday marking the sixth consecutive up day for the markets.  After clearing the swing pivot high of 1866.5, the next test on the daily chart is the all-time high of 1892.5. There has been some minor selling during the premarket with prices currently trading near the value area low of 1872, which coincides with the daily pivot level and will be the key level to watch for the day.  Yesterday saw buying almost immediately from the open and created a "P-shaped" formation on the market profile. When this occurs, there are typically unfilled buy orders at yesterday's opening price of 1866.75.  As a result, if there is any liquidation when the market opens for business, the higher probability is for some type of bounce around the level. Intraday bias is neutral.



Stock of the Day: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)- Earnings reported yesterday






ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish




ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 
































Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Morning Update for Tuesday, April 22nd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:KC (Coffee), CT (Cotton), PA (Palladium), ZC (Corn), PL (Platinum), ZW (Wheat), ZL (Soybean Oil), SI (Silver), ZS (Soybeans)
Down:NKD (Nikkei)



News for the day:

Existing Home Sales: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P has been up for 5 consecutive days and continues to leave the bears scratching their heads as they continue to search for shorting opportunities for a potential market reversal.  Yesterday's profile lacked an excess high and still needs to get repaired as per market profile theory.  This means that if buying continues today, the higher probability is for an elogantion of the profile up through yesterday's high of 1865.5, the key level to watch for today.  The range is also important because it had served as inflection points from the April 9th and 10th highs.  It is important to note that the value areas have risen progressively higher the past 5 days and indicates that the large institutions and banks have been buying the dip.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.



Stock of the Day: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)- Earnings reported after the bell last night






ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish




ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 






















Monday, April 21, 2014

Morning Update for Monday, April 21st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CT (Cotton)
Down:ZW (Wheat), PA (Palladium), SI (Silver), PL (Platinum), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZC (Corn)



News for the day:

**NONE**


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P bounced back last week and recouped all of the losses from the selling after the Fed news from the prior week.  Each of the past three days has seen progressively higher value areas on the profile heading into the Easter holiday and closed near the intraday highs, both of which are bullish signs.  Looking at the ichimoku cloud structure, prices are once again trading above the cloud, but the tenkan line is still below the kijun line. Until there is a bullish crossover, the longer term bias is more neutral to bullish.  Trading during the premarket has been relatively flat with prices near the value area high.  The key levels to watch will be Friday's high at 1863.75 to the topside and the convergence level of 1851 if there is any liquidation.



Stock of the Day: Halliburton Co. (HAL)- Earnings before the bell











ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish




ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

























Thursday, April 17, 2014

Morning Update for Thursday, April 17th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZO (Oats), KC (Coffee), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), ZW (Wheat)
Down:SB (Sugar), PA (Palladium)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Philadelphia Fed Survey: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Earnings season is in full swing with a significant number of Dow companies and momentum names reporting after the bell last night and premarket this morning including Google, IBM, American Express, Pepsi, Morgan Stanley, Dupont, Honeywell, Goldman Sachs, & GE among others. Earnings reports often brings in added volatility to the markets with traders looking to capitalize on projected growth rates of the respective companies.  Given the context of the long term uptrend, the path of least resistance is still higher until proven otherwise.  During the premarket, there has been some selling back into Wednesday's value area.  If the location of trade remains the same when the market opens for business, the higher probability is for two-way trading until prices can clear the intraday high (1857)/low (1840.75), which are the key levels to watch for today.  Intraday edge is neutral.



Stock of the Day:Google, Inc. (GOOGL)- Earnings reported after the bell last night










ES Daily Trend: Neutral






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 



























Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 16th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES




Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish 
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Indexes, NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), ZS (Soybeans), ZM (Soymeal), CL (Crude Oil), CT (Cotton), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZO (Oats), SI (Silver)
Down:6N (New Zealand Dollar)



News for the day:

Housing Starts: 8:30a
Industrial Production: 9:15a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
Beige Book: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: When it comes to the markets, expect the unexpected.  Just as the bears were starting to build some velocity and all of the CNBC pundits were warning of a major correction, traders have been buying the market this week. The importance of technical analysis cannot be understated.  Despite the selloff last week, the market is still above the long term ascending trendline and making higher highs.  Until the trendline or 200 daily MA is broken, the path of least resistance continues to be up as bulls are buying the dips.  Premarket action has seen added buying ahead of the Janet Yellen speech this afternoon. The 20 day MA at 1853 is the key level to watch for today and should attract added trading.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.



Stock of the Day: Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)- Earnings reported last night






ES Daily Trend: Neutral






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 























Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Morning Update for Tuesday, April 15th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES






Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZM (Soybean Meal), SB (Sugar), CT (Cotton)
Down: PA (Palladium), GC (Gold), PL (Platinum), SI (Silver), CL (Crude Oil), ZC (Corn)



News for the day:

Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Empire State Mfg Survey: 8:30a
Treasury International Capital: 9:00a
Housing Market Index: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: For the millions of Americans each year who report their taxes, there are some who receive a reward from Uncle Sam while others who have to pay a penalty.  Similarly, the markets rewards those traders who are prudent with their decisions while stopping out those traders who have not done their research.  The S&P is currently at a crossroads with a potential change in market sentiment as the bears are starting to pick up momentum within the context of a long term uptrend.  Yesterday saw significant volatility as Friday's high of 1828 was tested only for prices to trade within the daily range.  The offers have lifted above it during premarket trading with the key area being 1830-1835 which had previously been support and now is a resistance level and could be a potential point where the bears would look for shorting opportunities.  Intraday edge is neutral.



Stock of the Day: Coca-Cola (KO)- Earnings reported before the bell










ES Daily Trend: Neutral






ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish







ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish