Morning Update for Wednesday, April 30th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SB (Sugar)
Down: KC (Coffee), SI (Silver), CL (Crude Oil), NKD (Nikkei), ZC (Corn), PA (Palladium), PL (Platinum), ZW (Wheat), ZL (Soybean Oil)



News for the day:

ADP Employment Report: 8:15a
GDP: 8:30a
Employment Cost Index: 8:30a
Chicago PMI: 9:45a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Minutes: 2:00p
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P has continued with a balanced profile after Monday's wide range trading day.  With the pending Fed minutes to be announced at 2pm this afternoon, the likelikhood is for lower volatility as long term fundamental traders position themselves for market entry when the interest rate news is given to provide clues of future market direction.  Trading in the premarket has seen some selling, all within the context of Tuesday's range. As a result, the key reference levels will be the previous day high and low of 1875.25 & 1865.25.  Intraday edge is neutral.

Stock of the Day: Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)- Earnings reported after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, April 29th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long 
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZC (Corn), 6C (Canadian Dollar), CC (Cocoa)
Down: SI (Silver), NG (Nat Gas), GC (Gold), ZB (Bonds), ZW (Wheat)



News for the day:

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 9:00a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Yesterday's trading saw a roller coaster of activity with the S&P trading in a 28 handle range only to close within 1 point of the level at the open.  The market caught a bid at the 50% fibonacci retracement from the April 11th low to the April 24th high and could see further continuation buying today. The Fed meeting begins today and continues Wednesday with the FOMC minutes to be announced at 2pm tomorrow.  When there is a Fed event, it often attracts longer term macro and fundamental investors who reposition their portfolio based on the economic news and provide added volatility to the day and swing traders who look to capitalize on short term directional market moves.  There has been buying during the premarket up to Monday's high of 1871.75 and will be the level to watch when the market opens for business.  Any activity above the price is more bullish as buyers lift the offers above the previous day's range.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Herbalife, Inc. (HLF)- Earnings after the bell yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, April 28th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZM (Soybean Meal), ZO (Oats), ZS (Soybeans), CL (Crude Oil), SB (Sugar), ZL (Soybean Oil), NG (Nat Gas), ZW (Wheat)
Down: KC (Coffee), CT (Cotton)



News for the day:

Pending Home Sales: 10:00a
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The markets are entering into a limbo state based on the current price patterns.  The S&P is above the trendline and the ichimoku cloud support levels, but there is a potential head and shoulders setup on the daily chart. The right shoulder is currently being developed after the selloff from Thursday and Friday.  The 20 and 50 daily moving averages are directly below at 1858 and 1855, respectively, and are the levels to watch for today. The bears will need to pull prices through the range before building any longer term sell side momentum.  Intraday bias is neutral with prices currently trading inside of Friday's range near the value area high.

Stock of the Day: Sohu, Inc. (SOHU)- Earnings to be reported before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 4.27.14

Morning Update for Friday, April 25th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZO (Oats), SB (Sugar), PL (Platinum)
Down: KC (Coffee), CT (Cotton), CL (Crude Oil)



News for the day:

Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The price action of the markets can be likened to the pace of a marathon.  During the course of the race, there are spurts of faster mile times and there are parts of the course where the runners take a breath and conserve energy before the next surge.  After 6 updays in a row, the S&P has traded more horizontally the past couple of days.  The ES opened near the overnight highs yesterday, but there was a liquidation break at the open and resulting in selling during the AM session before a buyback rally later in the afternoon.  The profile had wide distribution throughout the intraday range and are currently trading in the premarket near the value area low of (1868.75).  If prices remain in the value area zone, then the higher probability is for two way trading activity.  If prices continue to liquidate, the next level of support is Thursday's low of 1863.75.  Intraday edge is neutral/bearish.

Stock of the Day: Amazon, Inc. (AMZN)- Earnings reported yesterday after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, April 24th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NQ (Nasdaq), HG (Copper), NG (Nat Gas)
Down:SI (Silver), KC (Coffee), ZL (Soybean Oil)



News for the day:

Durable Goods: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Never underestimate the effect that a stock can have on the entire index.  Once Apple reported earnings after the bell last night, the S&P futures shot up 5 handles and the Nasdaq futures are up more than 1% in the premarket.  Given the recent surge of buyers for the past week and the majority of companies reporting better than expected earnings, the higher probability is for continued upside momentum.  Yesterday's profile was balanced as the markets took a day of rest to consolidate before the next directional move. With prices trading above Wednesday's range, the key level is the high of 1873.75, which coincides with the R1 pivot level.  Intraday edge is bullish.

Stock of the Day: Apple Inc. (AAPL)- Earnings reported after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 23rd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:KC (Coffee), SI (Silver), NG (Nat Gas)
Down: 6A (Aussie Dollar), CT (Cotton)



News for the day:

PMI Manufacturing Index: 9:45a
New Home Sales: 10:00a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P has continued it's march higher with yesterday marking the sixth consecutive up day for the markets.  After clearing the swing pivot high of 1866.5, the next test on the daily chart is the all-time high of 1892.5. There has been some minor selling during the premarket with prices currently trading near the value area low of 1872, which coincides with the daily pivot level and will be the key level to watch for the day.  Yesterday saw buying almost immediately from the open and created a "P-shaped" formation on the market profile. When this occurs, there are typically unfilled buy orders at yesterday's opening price of 1866.75.  As a result, if there is any liquidation when the market opens for business, the higher probability is for some type of bounce around the level. Intraday bias is neutral.

Stock of the Day: Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)- Earnings reported yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, April 22nd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:KC (Coffee), CT (Cotton), PA (Palladium), ZC (Corn), PL (Platinum), ZW (Wheat), ZL (Soybean Oil), SI (Silver), ZS (Soybeans)
Down:NKD (Nikkei)



News for the day:

Existing Home Sales: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P has been up for 5 consecutive days and continues to leave the bears scratching their heads as they continue to search for shorting opportunities for a potential market reversal.  Yesterday's profile lacked an excess high and still needs to get repaired as per market profile theory.  This means that if buying continues today, the higher probability is for an elogantion of the profile up through yesterday's high of 1865.5, the key level to watch for today.  The range is also important because it had served as inflection points from the April 9th and 10th highs.  It is important to note that the value areas have risen progressively higher the past 5 days and indicates that the large institutions and banks have been buying the dip.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)- Earnings reported after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, April 21st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CT (Cotton)
Down:ZW (Wheat), PA (Palladium), SI (Silver), PL (Platinum), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZC (Corn)



News for the day:

**NONE**


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P bounced back last week and recouped all of the losses from the selling after the Fed news from the prior week.  Each of the past three days has seen progressively higher value areas on the profile heading into the Easter holiday and closed near the intraday highs, both of which are bullish signs.  Looking at the ichimoku cloud structure, prices are once again trading above the cloud, but the tenkan line is still below the kijun line. Until there is a bullish crossover, the longer term bias is more neutral to bullish.  Trading during the premarket has been relatively flat with prices near the value area high.  The key levels to watch will be Friday's high at 1863.75 to the topside and the convergence level of 1851 if there is any liquidation.

Stock of the Day: Halliburton Co. (HAL)- Earnings before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 4.20.14

Morning Update for Thursday, April 17th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZO (Oats), KC (Coffee), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), ZW (Wheat)
Down:SB (Sugar), PA (Palladium)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Philadelphia Fed Survey: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Earnings season is in full swing with a significant number of Dow companies and momentum names reporting after the bell last night and premarket this morning including Google, IBM, American Express, Pepsi, Morgan Stanley, Dupont, Honeywell, Goldman Sachs, & GE among others. Earnings reports often brings in added volatility to the markets with traders looking to capitalize on projected growth rates of the respective companies.  Given the context of the long term uptrend, the path of least resistance is still higher until proven otherwise.  During the premarket, there has been some selling back into Wednesday's value area.  If the location of trade remains the same when the market opens for business, the higher probability is for two-way trading until prices can clear the intraday high (1857)/low (1840.75), which are the key levels to watch for today.  Intraday edge is neutral.

Stock of the Day:Google, Inc. (GOOGL)- Earnings reported after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 16th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish 
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: Indexes, NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), ZS (Soybeans), ZM (Soymeal), CL (Crude Oil), CT (Cotton), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZO (Oats), SI (Silver)
Down:6N (New Zealand Dollar)



News for the day:

Housing Starts: 8:30a
Industrial Production: 9:15a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
Beige Book: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: When it comes to the markets, expect the unexpected.  Just as the bears were starting to build some velocity and all of the CNBC pundits were warning of a major correction, traders have been buying the market this week. The importance of technical analysis cannot be understated.  Despite the selloff last week, the market is still above the long term ascending trendline and making higher highs.  Until the trendline or 200 daily MA is broken, the path of least resistance continues to be up as bulls are buying the dips.  Premarket action has seen added buying ahead of the Janet Yellen speech this afternoon. The 20 day MA at 1853 is the key level to watch for today and should attract added trading.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)- Earnings reported last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish