Morning Update for Tuesday, December 31st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral/Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:SB (Sugar), ZL (Soybean Oil)
Down: NG (Nat Gas), KC (Coffee), PL (Platinum)



News for the day:

S&P Case Shiller HPI: 9:00a
Chicago PMI: 9:45a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a 

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P has formed a basing pattern heading into the New Year.  Prior to yesterday, the index had seen increasing value areas for five days in a row before leveling and trading horizontally during Monday's session.  Given the lower holiday volume heading into the New Year and the overnight price activity trading right at the point of control, the higher probability is for two-sided trading heading into 2014.  Happy New Year!

Stock of the Day:NQ Mobile (NQ)- Up 17% yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, December 30th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net Long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), SB (Sugar)
Down: SI (Silver), CC (Cocoa), ZO (Oats), PL (Palladium), GC (Gold), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), ZC (Corn), ZW (Wheat)



News for the day:

Pending Home Sales Index: 10:00a
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The trend continues upward as trading has been net long during the overnight session.  The S&P closed on Friday near the all-time highs of 1840 and the higher probability is for a test of the level when the market resumes pit trading on Monday morning.  The volume should be lighter due to the New Year's holiday, but we could see some volatility as institutions book profits for the calendar year.  The long term bias continues to be bullish and the intraday bias is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day:iShares Japan Index (EWJ)- Bullish cloud break

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Friday, December 27th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CT (Cotton), KC (Coffee), CC (Cocoa), 6E (Euro), PA (Palladium), 6B (British Pound)
Down: NG (Nat Gas), OJ (Orange Juice), DX (Dollar)



News for the day:

Petroleum Status Report: 11:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The bulls continue to reign supreme in these markets as new highs were made yesterday in both the Euro and US sessions.  There is simply no fear in these markets and the buyers are stepping in on every dip and raising prices to levels never seen before.  Aside from short term/intraday trading, the bears are forced to cover their shorts and additional buyers are entering the markets when this occurs, creating the additional upward momentum. There is no major news today and prices are currently trading inside of the value area, so the bias continues to be neutral/up.

Stock of the Day: Blackberry, Inc. (BBRY)- Co-founder announced the partial selling of shares

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, December 26th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net Long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:SI (Silver), NKD (Nikkei), KC (Coffee), OJ (Orange Juice), PA (Palladium), GC (Gold)
Down: CC (Cocoa), 6J (Yen)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
 Petroleum Report: 11:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P continues its bullish momentum as new all-time highs were made in the premarket. The internals are also confirming this up move and given the fact that markets typically don't make highs during the Euro session, further upside is the higher probability.  The key level to watch if there is anytime of selling at the open is the value area high of 1828.5. If the buyers continue to lift the markets then the overnight high of 1833.5 will be the significant inflection point. Edge to the bulls until proven otherwise.

Stock of the Day: Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)- Gap up in the premarket

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, December 24th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CC (Cocoa), CT (Cotton), ZO (Oats), HG (Copper), SB (Sugar)
Down:NKD (Nikkei), NG (Nat Gas)



News for the day:

Durable Good Orders: 8:30a
New Home Sales: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The ES was trading neutral during the overnight session and the higher probability is for continued two-sided trading. Given the fact that the market has been trading at all-time highs then the bias is clearly to the topside.  Obviously, anything above the previous record high of 1824.5 should bring in more buyers and will be the level to watch for today.  The Santa Claus rally is upon us.  Merry Christmas!

Stock of the Day: Interdigital, Inc. (IDCC)- Gap up in the premarket

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, December 23rd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG (Nat Gas), 6C (Canadian Dollar), Indexes
Down:CT (Cotton), OJ (Orange Juice), SB (Sugar)



News for the day:

Personal Income & Outlays: 8:30a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P saw record highs on Friday and the bullish activity continued when the markets reopened on Sunday night as an all-time high was made during the overnight session.  Anytime new highs are made during the Euro market hours is a positive sign as market theory states that highs/lows of a trading day are usually made during the RTH session.  As a result, the higher probability is for the upward momentum to continue when the markets open for trading. The point of reference will be Friday's high of 1817.75. Bears have to continue to buckle their seatbelts until there is a definitive sign of a market reversal.
The clear edge is with the bulls.

Stock of the Day:Apple, Inc. (AAPL)- Deal made with China Mobile

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Friday, December 20th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral/Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:SB (Sugar), SI (Silver), PL (Platinum), PA (Palladium), KC (Coffee), HG (Copper), NKD (Nikkei)
Down:ZC (Corn), ZW (Wheat)



News for the day:

GDP: 8:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:Today is Quad Witching Day when stock index futures, single stock futures, stock options, and stock index options all expire on the same day. Typically, the S&P usually has a narrow trading range and choppy price action on witching days as traders close out long term positions and/or rollover contracts to the next month.  The key inflection points will be Thursday's high of 1805 if prices are bought up and Thursday's low of 1795 if there is a liquidation break.  There is GDP news in the premarket which could add some volatility to the intraday trading, but the higher probability is for two-sided trading, especially during the afternoon session.  Merry trading!

Stock of the Day: Walt Disney Co. (DIS)- Made new all-time highs yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, December 19th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), CC (Cocoa), ZM (Soybean Meal)
Down:SI (Silver), GC (Gold), ZO (Oats), PL (Platinum), HG (Copper), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), 6J (Yen) 6E (Euro), NKD (Nikkei)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Philadelphia Fed Survey: 10:00a
Existing Home Sales: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:Yesterday's massive buying after the Fed announcement that tapering would begin gave additional credence to the idea of trading based on price action rather than on the news. Logic would indicate that if the government would reduce the financial backing then the markets would sell off.  However, the S&P approached its all-time high of 1812.5 and barely retraced at all after the 2pm announcement yesterday.  Given the bullish activity and prices trading above the value area, the bias is clearly with the buyers, however it would be advisable to watch the price action at the open as there is a likelihood of some profit taking for short term traders.   

Stock of the Day: Facebook, Inc. (FB)- selling in the premarket after Zuckerberg sold shares

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, December 18th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:PA (Palladium), RB (RBOB Gasoline), ZM (Soybean Meal), KC (Coffee), 6B (British Pound), HO (Heating Oil)
Down:HG (Copper), ZW (Wheat)



News for the day:

Housing Starts: 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Meeting: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:Today is the all-important Fed meeting announcement, which should have a dramatic effect on the markets throughout the world.  Heading into the conference results this afternoon, the S&P is trading right at the point of control from Tuesday which is indicative of overnight balance activity.  The price activity on Fed days is typically range bound as traders position themselves for the news at 2pm EST. Therefore, the higher probability is for more two-sided trading in the AM session unless, of course, news is released early.  As a result, the key inflection points will be yesterday's high (1780.25) & low (1770.25). Due to the expected choppy price action in the morning, it is advisable to trade lightly until after the Fed news.

Stock of the Day: Questcor, Inc. (QCOR)- Gap down afterhours

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, December 17th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: At POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZO (Oats)
Down: ZM (Soybean Meal), NG (Nat Gas), ZS (Soybeans), NKD (Nikkei)



News for the day:

Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Housing Market Index: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: After yesterday's bullish trading activity, the S&P futures are trading neutral during the overnight session. Given the fact that the FOMC meetings begin today, the higher probability is for more two-sided trading leading up to the Fed announcement tomorrow, especially when prices are trading inside of the value area.  The key levels to watch will be the value area high/low and the previous day high/low. A breakout of the daily ranges today and tomorrow could provide directional opportunities as news from the Fed meetings begin to be released and longer term traders enter positions, which should correspond with an increase in volume. On an intraday basis, the bias is a cointoss. 

Stock of the Day:Herbalife, Ltd (HLF)- Gap up afterhours

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish