Morning Update for Thursday, November 7th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG (Nat Gas), ZM (Soybean Meal)
Down:NKD (Nikkei), SB (Sugar), HO (Heating Oil), ZO (Oats)



News for the day:

GDP: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The ES tested the all-time highs yesterday in the first hour of trading before pulling back and trading horizontally most of the afternoon, creating a very even distribution on the profile. At this point, prices are set to open inside the lower half of the value area and we could see some strong price movement in the premarket with Weekly Jobs & GDP report coming out at 8:30a.  1750-1760 continues to be a high volume zone and any trading in the range would be considered neutral price action. If prices clear value area high at 1766.75 then edge to the bulls. The afternoon trading should be light with the impending monthly jobs report tomorrow morning.

Stock of the Day:  Solar City, Inc. (SCTY)- Secondary offering

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, November 6th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CT (Cotton), Silver (SI), NKD (Nikkei), CL (Crude Oil), Gold (GC), Nat Gas (NG), Indexes
Down:



News for the day:

Petroleum Report: 10:30a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The market is poised to open higher and above the high volume area that has accumulated the past few days, a very bullish sign. At this point, the higher probability is a test of the all-time highs of 1770.50 as current prices are within 5 handles of the level.  If there is profit taking at the open, watch for a test of the previous day high/value area high at 1762.  Any bounce can be considered bullish as buyers would be supporting the level. If bears can manage to get prices back into the value area then that would be an accomplishment at this point given that it is a light news day. As of now, clear edge to the bulls.

Stock of the Day: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, November 5th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: CC (Cocoa), ZO (Oats), OJ (Orange Juice) 
Down:NG (Nat Gas), NKD (Nikkei), 6M (Mexican Peso)



News for the day:

ISM Non-Mfg Index: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The ES has been selling off in the premarket and are within the high volume range of 1750-1760.  If the bearish momentum continues when the US markets open for trading, resulting in a liquidation break, then the first reference point will be the previous day low of 1756.  If prices clear and hold then clear edge to the bears. On the other hand, if the buyers support the level and keep prices within Monday's range, then two-sided trading should be expected.

Stock of the Day: AOL Inc. (AOL)- Earnings before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, November 4th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: 6N (New Zealand Dollar), 6A (Aussie Dollar) 
Down:NG (Nat Gas), HG (Copper)



News for the day:

Factory Orders: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Prices have been moving higher in the premarket and are currently in a zone of overlapping value areas between 1750-1760 which is indicative of neutral activity. For buyers to gain traction today, the offers will have to be lifted above Friday's high at 1761.25. It is a relatively light news day, so trades within the value area should have smaller profit targets/stops.

Stock of the Day:Dry Ships Incorporated (DRYS)- Earnings today

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Friday, November 1st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZL (Soybean Oil), DX (Dollar)
Down:NKD (Nikkei), CC (Cocoa), GC (Gold), NG (Nat Gas), 6B (British Pound), CL (Crude Oil), 6E (Euro)



News for the day:

PMI Manufacturing Index: 8:58a
ISM Mfg Index: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The bulls continue to support the market near the all-time highs. Yesterday provided a solid opportunity for the bears to gain some traction and follow through after Wednesday's selloff. However, the buyers stepped in the daily lows and lifted the offers back into the high volume zone formed this week.  Similar to yesterday, prices are set to open inside the value area and more neutral price action should be expected until value area high (1760.25) or value area low (1753.25) is cleared.  Until proven otherwise, the bulls still have the market.

Stock of the Day: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Thursday, October 31

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Between POC & value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZC (Corn), NG (Nat Gas), ZS (Soybean)  
Down: SI (Silver), NKD (Nikkei), GC (Gold), HG (Copper), 6E(Euro)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Chicago PMI: 9:45a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: It goes to show that what is important is not the news itself, but the market's reaction to the news. Despite the expected announcement that the Fed would continue it's current policy and not begin tapering until March, the markets sold off dramatically during the 2pm hour yesterday, creating a wide value area.  Therefore, the key levels to watch will be the value area high (1766.75) and value area low (1756.25). Typically, when there is a wide value area, there is a high probability for a bounce off of the levels especially if the pace of tape is slower at the market open. Anything inside value can be considered neutral price activity and should be traded accordingly.

Stock of the Day: Facebook, Inc. (FB)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Wednesday, 10/30/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SI (Silver), Nikkei (NKD), Copper (HG), Platinum (PL), Soybean Oil (ZL)
Down:Crude Oil (CL)



News for the day:

ADP Employment Report: 8:15a
Consumer Price Index: 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Meeting Announcement: 2:00p


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Today's trading activity is centered on the FOMC meeting this afternoon. Typically, on Fed days, the market makers create a wide opening range and trade around the level to stabilize the market leading up to the announcement. However, there has been decent overnight activity where prices have been lifted above yesterday's range to another all-time high which is more bullish. The first 30 minutes of trading will be key to determine if prices continue it's move upward. If the ES continues to make highs when the US markets open, then the setup is for another trending day upwards. However, if bears pull prices back below 1768, then range bound activity can be expected prior to the Fed announcement at 2p.

Stock of the Day: LinkedIn (LNKD)- Reported Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Tuesday, 10/29/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: -- 
Down:SB, 6A, SI, CL, 6B



News for the day:

Producer Price Index: 8:30a
Retail Sales: 8:30a
Case Shiller Index: 9:00a
Business Inventories: 10:00a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The trend continues to be up as the ES is knocking on the doorstep to an all-time high in the premarket. Yesterday was somewhat of an anomaly as prices made highs during the overnight session. Typically, the high (or low) of a move occurs during the US markets when there is enough volume for sustained price activity. Ever since the job report on 10/17, the structure of the profiles has been relatively orderly with normalized distributions for the most part.  The conclusion is that short-term buyers continue to support the market until further news (like the Fed announcement tomorrow) gives longer term investors the opportunity to put their capital to work.  Considering the news catalysts today and price location near the highs, the bears have their work cut out for them.

Stock of the Day: Apple, Inc. (AAPL)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Monday, 10/28/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NKD
Down:NG, ZO



News for the day:

Industrial Production: 9:15a
Pending Home Sales: 10:00a
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a



*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The bullish momentum continued when markets resumed trading on Sunday evening as the ES made another new all-time high. When the US markets open, it will be important to watch if profit taking occurs and prices are brought back into Friday's trading range. As a result, the 1755.75 level will be significant, also because it was last week's high.  If prices spend time above the level then higher prices could be expected as traders explore new highs. Otherwise, more two sided trading should occur, especially if trading occurs inside the value area. Apple earnings also after the bell today, so stay tuned. Bulls still with the clear edge until proven otherwise.

Stock of the Day: Mercadolibre, Inc. (MELI)- Earnings after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Strongly Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

Morning Update for Friday, 10/25/13

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral/Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: --
Down:Silver (SI), Nikkei (NKD), Gold (GC), Palladium (PA), Platinum (PL)



News for the day:

Durable Good Orders- 8:30a
Consumer Sentiment- 9:55a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:As expected, yesterday turned out to be a balance day between Wednesday's and Thursday's trading ranges.  The distribution on the profiles have been normalized which is usually indicative of short-term traders leading the market.  Further neutral activity is likely until prices lift above 1754.75 to the topside. On the other hand, value is being built around 1738.25, so bears will have to clear  the level to generate any selling momentum.

Stock of the Day: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)- Earnings after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish