Morning Update for Monday, May 12th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:HG (Copper), SI (Silver), ZL (Soybean Oil), PA (Palladium), HO (Heating Oil), PL (Platinum), TF (Russell), GC (Gold), CL (Crude Oil)
Down:ZW (Wheat), NG (Nat Gas), ZC (Corn), OJ (Orange Juice)


News for the day:

Treasury Budget: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P continues to trade in a holding pattern within the context of the long term ascending trend channel.  There have been both bottoming tail and topping tail hammer candlesticks on the daily chart from last week with trading activity being conducted between the 1860-1880. Until there is clearance of the range, the higher probability is for more two way trading as both the bulls and bears look to build momentum for the next directional move.  The market has been trading to the buy side during the globex session.  The open will be key to see if the action continues above Friday's high of 1875, which is the level to watch for today.  Intraday bias is neutral until further notice.

Stock of the Day: Kandi Technologies (KNDI)- At 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, May 8th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:PA (Palladium), ZL (Soybean Oil), 6A (Aussie Dollar)
Down:KC (Coffee), CC (Cocoa)


News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P's are currently trading in a "rubber band" style as prices have fluctuated within a well-defined trading range dating back to mid-April.  Each time the bears have attempted to sell the market and drive prices lower, the bulls step in, buy the dips, and lift the offers back into the 1860-1880 high volume zone.  Another signal of the horizontal price activity is the divergence of the major indexes.  Typically, the indexes trade in tandem as the market reacts to news and developments throughout the day.  However, the S&P and Dow were well in the green yesterday while the Nasdaq and Russell had sold off with the Russell selling below trendline support.  The ES has been neutral during the globex session and, until prices breakthrough the zone, the higher probability is for more two-sided trading and choppy price action. Intraday edge is neutral. 

Stock of the Day: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)- Earnings reported after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, May 7th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:CL (Crude Oil), KC (Coffee)
Down:NKD (Nikkei), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), ZO (Oats)


News for the day:

Productivity & Costs- 8:30a
Petroleum Status Report- 10:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: There is a tug of war currently taking place on the S&P with back and forth trading activity occurring with overlapping value areas dating back to the beginning of May.  As part of market profile theory, an emphasis is placed on where prices closed relative to the point of control (POC), the price where the most amount of volume had traded at from the previous day.  The market open will be key. Given yesterday's close near the lows and neutral overnight activity, the higher probability is for a migration higher to the POC as traders who were short in the hole would cover their positions.  However, if there is a liquidation break, any selling below Monday's low of 1860.5 would trigger additional bearish algorithmic trading programs to enter the market and setup for a trending day lower. 

Stock of the Day: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)- Earnings reported yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, May 6th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), 6N (New Zealand Dollar)
Down: ZM (Soybean Meal), ZS (Soybeans), ZC (Corn), ZW (Wheat), ZO (Oats)


News for the day:

International Trade: 8:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: You can't fault the bears for trying.  Once again, sellers looked to push prices through the quadruple top that had been developing on the S&P daily chart and build bearish momentum after the jobs report from Friday.  The bulls continue to be persistent however in buying the dip and furthering the trend of the neutral value areas that have been developing between 1870-1880 for the past 5 trading days.  Any activity within the zone can be considered two-way trading since a significant amount of business had already been conducted at the levels. The premarket action has been neutral/long as the ES is approaching the previous day high of 1880, which is the key level to watch for today.  Intraday edge is neutral until there is a breakout of the high volume range.

Stock of the Day:DIRECTV (DTV)- Earnings to be reported today

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, May 5th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:ZW (Wheat), ZO (Oats), GC (Gold), SI (Silver), CL(Crude Oil)
Down:TF (Russell Index)


News for the day:

ISM Non-Mfg Index: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Many would argue that the relationship between the candlestick patterns and the volume, also known as volume spread analysis, is an important part of technical analysis.  Based on the price location of the S&P near the triple top combined with the increase in volume after Friday's jobs report, the setup is forming a false breakout pattern. When this occurs, the professional traders look to trap long traders into the market after positive news only to subsequently sell the markets in the following days.  We saw this happen when the markets opened on Friday and there has been continuation during the premarket with prices currently trading below Friday's range.  If buyers step in at the open, then the natural inflection point would be Friday's low of 1872.  If there is continued liquidation at the open, the next level of support is at 1865 but, after that, the chart is displaying room for a further selloff.  Intraday edge is bearish.

Stock of the Day: American International Group, Inc. (AIG)- Earnings to be reported before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Cloud Trader Weekend Update 5.4.14

Morning Update for Friday, May 2nd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZL (Soybean Oil), ZW (Wheat), NG (Nat Gas), SI (Silver), KC (Coffee), HG (Copper), CL (Crude Oil)
Down: ZO (Oats)



News for the day:

Employment Situation: 8:30a
Factory Orders: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:Today is the all-important employment report and is sure to provide the added volatility that index day traders and option traders crave.  The consensus is for the addition of 215,000 and will be closely monitored after the announcement of the number. Of course, the reaction to the news as reflected on the time and sales is more important than the news itself.  The daily chart pattern is more bullish and we have seen an increase in the value areas recently, but it is advisable to wait for the announcement before entering any positions.  Intraday edge is neutral.

Stock of the Day: Linked in (LNKD)- Earnings reported after the bell last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, May 1st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Neutral
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NKD (Nikkei), PA (Palladium)
Down:CC (Cocoa), GC (Gold), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZC (Corn), NG (Nat Gas), CL (Crude Oil)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Personal Income & Outlays: 8:30a
PMI Manufacturing Index: 9:45a
ISM Manufacturing Index: 10:00a
Construction Spending: 10:00a


*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P is once again approaching the all-time highs after the Fed announcement yesterday.  The value areas have progressively been increasing, a sign that the large traders are buying up the markets. Premarket trading has been neutral with prices currently inside of value.  Intraday edge is neutral.

Stock of the Day: Sprint Nextel Corp. (S)- News of a reported buyout of T-Mobile

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, April 30th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SB (Sugar)
Down: KC (Coffee), SI (Silver), CL (Crude Oil), NKD (Nikkei), ZC (Corn), PA (Palladium), PL (Platinum), ZW (Wheat), ZL (Soybean Oil)



News for the day:

ADP Employment Report: 8:15a
GDP: 8:30a
Employment Cost Index: 8:30a
Chicago PMI: 9:45a
Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Minutes: 2:00p
*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P has continued with a balanced profile after Monday's wide range trading day.  With the pending Fed minutes to be announced at 2pm this afternoon, the likelikhood is for lower volatility as long term fundamental traders position themselves for market entry when the interest rate news is given to provide clues of future market direction.  Trading in the premarket has seen some selling, all within the context of Tuesday's range. As a result, the key reference levels will be the previous day high and low of 1875.25 & 1865.25.  Intraday edge is neutral.

Stock of the Day: Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)- Earnings reported after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, April 29th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long 
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: ZC (Corn), 6C (Canadian Dollar), CC (Cocoa)
Down: SI (Silver), NG (Nat Gas), GC (Gold), ZB (Bonds), ZW (Wheat)



News for the day:

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: 9:00a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Yesterday's trading saw a roller coaster of activity with the S&P trading in a 28 handle range only to close within 1 point of the level at the open.  The market caught a bid at the 50% fibonacci retracement from the April 11th low to the April 24th high and could see further continuation buying today. The Fed meeting begins today and continues Wednesday with the FOMC minutes to be announced at 2pm tomorrow.  When there is a Fed event, it often attracts longer term macro and fundamental investors who reposition their portfolio based on the economic news and provide added volatility to the day and swing traders who look to capitalize on short term directional market moves.  There has been buying during the premarket up to Monday's high of 1871.75 and will be the level to watch when the market opens for business.  Any activity above the price is more bullish as buyers lift the offers above the previous day's range.  Intraday edge is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day: Herbalife, Inc. (HLF)- Earnings after the bell yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Bullish