Morning Update for Friday, January 31st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day:Outside
Location of price relative to market profile: Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: SI (Silver), KC (Coffee), SB (Sugar), OJ (Orange Juice), GC (Gold) 
Down:NG (Nat Gas), NKD (Nikkei), RB (Heating Oil), CL (Crude Oil), 6A (Aussie Dollar), Indexes



News for the day:

Personal Income & Outlays: 8:30a
Employment Cost Index: 8:30a
Chicago PMI: 9:45a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P recooped some of the selling from last week with all of the indexes up more than 1% yesterday.  It marked the sixth straight day where the intraday trading range has eclipsed 10 handles (or points), a sign that volatility is back and traders are active.  We saw a solid bounce with volume off the daily trendline and it will be noteworthy to see if the bullish momentum can be sustained.  The ES has sold off during the premarket and the next level of support is the Jan. 29th low of 1764. There is also a VPOC to be filled at 1773.50 if there is buying at the open.  At this point, though, the bears have got the edge.  

Stock of the Day: Google, Inc. (GOOG)- Earnings reported after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, January 30th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day:Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Near value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: KC (Coffee), SB (Sugar), ZW (Wheat)
Down: NG (Nat Gas), ZO (Oats), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), ZM (Soybean Meal), SI (Silver), PL (Palladium), GC (Gold), 6B (British Pound), 6S (Swiss Franc)



News for the day:

GDP: 8:30a
Jobless Claims: 8:30a
Pending Home Sales Index: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day:The S&P has increased in volatility recently after a prolonged balancing period, especially after the Fed minutes released yesterday.  The average true range has almost doubled since the beginning of the New Year and the higher likelihood is for additional traders to enter the market as the ES approaches the daily trendline support.  At the same time, it is in downward trend on the hourly chart, which is a sign of a potential change in sentiment.  Prices have lifted during the overnight session, but are still in the value area, making value area high (1778.25) & value area low (1769), the key points of reference. Intraday bias is neutral; intermediate bias is down; longterm bias is up. 

Stock of the Day: Facebook, Inc. (FB)- Earnings reported after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, January 29th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Near POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), ZO (Oats), CT (Cotton), SI (Silver), GC (Gold)
Down: SB (Sugar), CC (Cocoa), 6M (Peso)



News for the day:

Petroleum Status Report: 10:30a
FOMC Meeting Announcement: 2:00p

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P had a balancing day yesterday with prices trading inside of Monday's range after the big selloff from last week.  Based on the profile development, all of the trading action occurred inside of value and was a sign that short-term traders were guiding the markets in anticipation for today's FOMC announcement.  Volatility is typically low during the morning session as large institutional traders wait on the sidelines for the minutes to come out at 2p. Premarket trading so far has confirmed this with prices trading right near the point of control from yesterday.  The higher probability is for neutral price action early and then a spike in levels in the afternoon, especially if the Fed provides new guidance for future monetary policy.  The key levels to watch when the news is announced will be Tuesday's high (1788.75) & low (1776.75). Intraday bias is a coin toss.

Stock of the Day:Yahoo, Inc. (YHOO)- Earnings reported last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, January 28th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile: Between value area high & POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up: NG (Nat Gas), ZO (Oats), NKD (Nikkei), CC (Cocoa), 6M (Peso), ZW (Wheat), 6A (Aussie Dollar)
Down: GC (Gold)



News for the day:

Durable Goods: 8:30a
S&P Case Shiller Home Index: 9:00a
Consumer Confidence: 10:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P had a roller coaster day of trading yesterday as prices sold off in a big way during the morning session, only to recoop most of the losses during the afternoon session before selling off again into the close.  The most volatility usually occurs between 9:30-11:30a as investors balance their overnight inventory and it is when large institutions place their trades.  However, buyers stepped in and lifted offers during afternoon trading and the bulls have continued buying in the premarket.  Short term traders still have the markets as indicated by the price bounce occurring right at the intermediate trendline on the daily chart.  If the markets were truly bearish then prices would have sold through the level and continued lower.  Additionally, since then, prices are approaching value area high of 1788.5 which will be the level to watch for today. Intraday edge is neutral/bullish, but volatility is back.

Stock of the Day: Apple, Inc. (AAPL)- Earnings reported last night

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Monday, January 27th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Between POC & Value area low
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), NKD (Nikkei) ZO (Oats), ZW (Wheat), TF (Russell Index)
Down: CT (Cotton), ZL (Soybean Oil)



News for the day:

New Home Sales: 10:00a
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey: 10:30a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Friday saw the first follow through selling day in weeks as the bears finally were able to gain some traction.  All is not as bearish though as the CNBC pundits may make it out to believe however.  We are still in a long-term uptrend and prices have yet to test the trendline on the daily chart. Until that happens, it is safe to say that the bulls still have the edge.  Additionally, during the overnight session, the shorts have taken some profits and the longs have bought on the dip in driving prices higher inside of value.  Due to the large value area formed on Friday, the first profit target for the longs will be value area high at 1812.25. If the bears continue to sell the markets, they will have to sell prices through the previous day low of 1781.25 for confirmation.  Intraday bias is neutral/up.

Stock of the Day: Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)- Earnings before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Neutral/Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Weekend Update 1/26/14

Morning Update for Friday, January 24th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment:Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change: Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), SI (Silver), 6J (Yen), ZO (Oats), GC (Gold)
Down: NKD (Nikkei), 6M (Peso), ZL (Soybean Oil), PL (Palladium), 6A (Aussie Dollar), ZS (Soybeans), KC (Coffee), Indexes



News for the day:

NONE

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: After yesterday's selloff and continued bearish activity during the overnight session, there is starting to be more of a bearish sentiment as prices are selling through the high volume zone that has been accumulating since the beginning of the New Year.  The last time this occurred on Jan. 14th, the bulls bought up the markets in full force and lifted the offers back into the 1825-1840 balance area.  The key inflection point for today's trading will be at 1810. It will be noteworthy to see if prices sell through the support level and, if it does, the profit target will be the whole number of 1800.  Keep in mind that we are in a strong long term uptrend, but the intraday bias is clearly bearish.

Stock of the Day: Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)- Earnings reported last night

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Thursday, January 23rd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Neutral
Overnight Inventory Change:Net short
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Below value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), CC (Cocoa), SI (Silver), KC (Coffee), 6S (Soybeans), ZW (Wheat), ZL (Soybean Oil), ZC (Corn), 6E (Euro), GC (Gold)
Down: NKD (Nikkei), 6A (Aussie Dollar), ZO (Oats), HG (Copper), 6C (Canadian Dollar), PA (Palladium)



News for the day:

Jobless Claims: 8:30a
PMI Manufacturing Index: 8:58a
Existing Home Sales: 10:00a
Petroleum Report: 11:00a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: Today's theme for trading is patience.  Yesterday saw yet another balancing day in the markets together with a decrease in volatility, meaning that the markets are in a holding pattern.  What this signals for intraday trading is that the wise play is to set smaller profit targets and stops.  On a 24 hour chart, the ES has triple topped at 1844 and is the level to watch if there is longer term buying activity. However, at this point, the market has sold off outside of yesterday's range which is a bearish sign. The bulls will look to buy on the dips and bring prices back inside of the daily range, making the previous day low of 1835 a signficant point of reference. If there is continued selling, then the bottom of the high volume range of 1825 will be the natural profit target to the short side. At this point, intraday bias is bearish and longer term bias is bullish. 

Stock of the Day:Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)- Earnings reported after the bell

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Wednesday, January 22nd

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bullish
Overnight Inventory Change:Neutral/long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:Between value area high & POC
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NG (Nat Gas), 6A (Aussie dollar), CL (Crude Oil), ZC (Corn)
Down: HG (Copper), KC (Coffee)



News for the day:

NONE

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P had tested Tuesday's high during the overnight session before selling back into the value area.  The more times prices test a level, the higher the probability that it eventually will be penetrated, especially if the market makes higher lows for a breakout trade and creating an ascending triangle chart pattern.  The ES has been in a holding period near the all-time highs since the beginning of the New Year which continues to be a positive sign for the markets as bulls are maintaining prices and buying on any dips.  The index is set to open inside value area, making the intraday bias neutral to bullish. In the long term, the bias is bullish.

Stock of the Day:Coach, Inc. (COH)- Earnings reported before the bell

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Morning Update for Tuesday, January 21st

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Inside
Location of price relative to market profile:At value area high
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:HO (Heating Oil), ZL (Soybean Oil), KC (Coffee), NG (Nat Gas), NKD (Nikkei), 6N (New Zealand Dollar)
Down: ZM (Soybean Meal), SI (Silver), ZS (Soybean), 6M (Peso), HG (Copper), GC (Gold)



News for the day:

NONE

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The markets are back at it again after the MLK Day holiday and the buying activity continued during the overnight session.  Prices are set to open near the value area high from Friday and are at the high of the longer term volume area from 1825-1838.  A bullish flag pattern has developed on the 30 minute chart and the market would need to clear Friday's high of 1840.5 before confirmation of a breakout.  Despite multiple attempts the past few days by the bears to sell the market off, the path of least resistance remains to the topside until the charts tell a different story.  Intraday bias is slightly bullish. Long term bias is bullish.

Stock of the Day: Blackberry, Inc. (BBRY)- Bullish cloud break

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish 

Cloud Trader Weekend Update January 19th, 2014

Morning Update for Friday, January 17th

Major Support/Resistance Levels- ES

*Highlighted regions denote strong areas of support (green)/resistance (red) & mid-range level (brown)

Daily Outlook

Prior Day Market Sentiment: Bearish
Overnight Inventory Change:Net long
Inside Day/Outside Day: Outside
Location of price relative to market profile:Above value area
Notable overnight futures markets changes:
Up:NKD (Nikkei), PL (Palladium), 6B (British Pound), RB (Heating Oil)
Down: CC (Cocoa), 6N (New Zealand Dollar), KC (Coffee), NG (Nat Gas), ZM (Soybean Meal), ZC (Corn), ZS (Soybeans), ZW (Wheat), SB (Sugar)



News for the day:

Housing Starts: 8:30a
Industrial Production: 9:15a
Consumer Sentiment: 9:55a

*Red highlight means the news is a market moving event;
yellow highlight means the news merits attention


Projected ES price action for the day: The S&P is poised to open higher after buying activity during the overnight session. As of this writing, prices are hovering right at Thursday's high of 1841.  Any trading above this level can be construed as bullish and draw attention from more buyers looking to make new all-time highs.  Ever since the beginning of the New Year, prices have been propped up near the highs which is indicative of the longer timeframe bulls buying on any dips.  It is options expiry Friday and there is typically more two way trading as traders cover or roll their positions to future option dates.  Bulls are on parade until proven otherwise.  Long term bias is bullish; intraday bias is neutral/bullish.

Stock of the Day:Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS)- Down 27% yesterday

ES Daily Trend: Bullish

ES Weekly Trend:  Strongly Bullish

ES Monthly Trend:  Strongly Bullish